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Hello Traders,
Thanks to those of you who joined us today. I should reiterate that the Monday Market Update is just that. A big picture overview of the markets, with a few ‘charts of interest’ thrown in. There are no trade recommendations, this is not a signal service – just what I am looking at and interested in.
Today we looked at; FX STAM, Alphabet Inc ($GOOG), Exxon Mobil ($XOM), Unusual Machines ($UMAC), Rocket Lab ($RKLB), Broadcom Inc ($AVGO), and CrowdStrike ($CRWD).
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A long-established trading account with years of content, followers, podcasts, client interaction, and community trust gives scammers instant social proof. It allows them to appear legitimate quickly while targeting unsuspecting followers with phishing links, fake investment schemes, or fraudulent crypto opportunities.
That is why these attacks are becoming increasingly common across the trading and finance space.
For clarity: • I will NEVER ask you to send crypto • I will NEVER DM investment schemes or wallet links • I will NEVER pressure followers into “exclusive” opportunities via private messages
Frankly, I’ve been hugely disappointed with X support throughout this process. Despite being a long-standing Premium user with years of verifiable history, the support response has been extremely poor. They have been utterly woeful in fact.
Make 2026 your best trading year ever by joining the VTP Trader Accountability Group: https://bit.ly/VTPTAG
Hello Traders,
Thanks to those of you who joined us today. I should reiterate that the Monday Market Update is just that. A big picture overview of the markets, with a few ‘charts of interest’ thrown in. There are no trade recommendations, this is not a signal service – just what I am looking at and interested in.
Today we looked at; FX STAM, the Irish Stock Exchange ($ISEQ), The Emerging Markets Fund ($EEM), UK 10 Year Gilt Yields ($GB10Y), Ondas Inc ($ONDS), Wix.com ($WIX), and Oklo Inc ($OKLO).
If you’re happy with your trading methods and just want to be part of a community then join the Free VTP Skool community: https://bit.ly/VTPSKOOL
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AI Generated Key Outcomes from the session:
Key Outcomes
Paul Wallace delivers his final Monday Market Update before a two-week break, analyzing FX strength/weakness, indices at all-time highs, and key earnings plays amid volatile geopolitical conditions. Markets flip between risk-on and risk-off as Trump declines Iran’s counter-proposal over the weekend, reversing Friday’s peace deal optimism. 123
Market Strength & Positioning (STAM Model)
FX Rankings (Week 20):
Strongest: Aussie dollar remains top, Kiwi dollar surged from bottom to second place (reflecting risk-on sentiment end of last week) 14
Weakest: US dollar at bottom, Canadian dollar rolled over and fell away 1
Mid-tier: Swiss franc nudged up, Japanese yen bumped on BoJ intervention comments, Euro middling, Sterling weakened from second place two weeks ago 25
Monday Reality Check:
All major currencies weakened against USD as Trump rejected Iranian counter-offer, triggering risk-off mode 36
Most Aussie/Kiwi pairs in STAM 1 or STAM 2 buying configurations, confirming continued strength 6
Indices:
S&P, NASDAQ, Russell closed weekly at all-time highs 78
Dow coiling under 50,000 level, hasn’t pushed to highs like others 9
FTSE only major index not in STAM 1 buying; showing weakness 7
Commodities:
Silver in strategic buying, VIX supporting bullish action, Bitcoin in STAM 2 Bravo with nice daily trend 7
West Texas crude trading just under $100, reflecting geopolitical tension 9
Political & Economic Backdrop
UK Political Instability:
PM Starmer delivered 30th “reset speech” (under 2 years in office) following election losses, doubling down on unpopular decisions 5
Markets in “strange place” – Sterling shows weakness from political instability but also strength because markets fear who replaces Starmer/Reeves (quality falls off a cliff after them) 35
Speech failed to inspire; gilt yields pushed up 1.3% today instead of drifting down 1011
Geopolitical Volatility:
Flip-flopping between war-on/risk-off and peace deal optimism creating market whiplash 12
Trump meeting Chinese President Xi from position of strength, potentially part of Iranian negotiating strategy 6
Charts of Interest & Earnings Plays
ISEC (Irish Stock Exchange):
Weekly chart shows strong uptrend with bounces off 50-period MA, but topped out at 13,000 twice 1213
Closed below 20-period MA last week (first time in 9 months); 20 turning down while 50 spinning up – coiling between the two 13
Sensitive to ECB commentary, Euro strength, US tech sentiment (many tech companies have Irish real estate) 1314
Banking/construction names sensitive to ECB rate expectations and eurozone growth 14
Watch for: Catalyst to break above 13,000 or below 50-period MA 14
EAM (Emerging Markets Index Fund):
Weekly chart on strong move, closed at weekly highs despite tariff tantrums and dollar swings 15
Benefiting from elevated defense/energy/infrastructure spending, rebuilding in Persian Gulf, capital flows as traders price in less aggressive Fed 1516
Risk: Stronger dollar could reverse inflows quickly and pressure risk assets 16
UK Gilts 10-Year Yield:
Weekly at 5% level – Paul sees double top and bearish engulfing/key reversal candle (rolled over and closed beneath previous candle low) 1017
Reporting this week; Paul has website exposure via Wix subscription 21
Benefiting from AI integration, website creation automation, digital infrastructure 21
Investors focused on margin expansion and subscription revenue rather than pure growth 21
Software sector sensitive to US yields and NASDAQ risk appetite; guidance on enterprise spending key 2122
Weekly chart: Strong downtrend with double bottom forming at $60; 20-period MA acting as resistance for 9 months 22
Currently at $80 (big round number) with 20-period MA overhead 22
Watch for: Earnings catalyst to break above 20-period MA; if so, $100 becomes magnet (50-period MA converging there); failure means drift lower 2223
OKLO (Small Modular Reactor/Nuclear):
High-profile speculative nuclear energy/SMR theme play; reporting Wednesday evening after close 2324
Feeds into AI electricity demand and energy security narrative 24
Weekly chart: Paul’s first position around $20 off 50-period MA bounce; flew to $190, crashed to $50, now coiling between $70-$80 (between 20 and 50-period MAs) 25
Lots of wicks top and tail showing volatility; expect continued volatility 25
Watch for: Earnings/guidance as catalyst for next move; regulatory process and government support key factors 82425
Index & Commodity Technical Views
US Indices:
NASDAQ, S&P, Russell: Weekly closes at all-time highs – “everybody’s getting green and giddy” 78
Dow: Coiling under 50,000; hasn’t followed others to highs – watch if it follows or leads reversal 926
European Indices:
DAX: Above weekly 20 and 50-period MAs but not inspiring; started year with double top, now forming lower high – concern about rolling over 26
FTSE: Fantastic 2025 trend stopped by big bearish engulfing/key reversal candle; formed lower high, last week’s candle shows bearish rejection/high wave/spinning top – expect drift back to 10,000 level 2728
Gold:
Weekly: Last couple weeks show wicks providing buying support, but ranging; not exciting 28
Daily: 50-period MA rolled over, acting as fantastic dynamic resistance; significant level at $4,400 28
Descending triangle potentially building with 50-period MA pushing price lower 29
Silver:
Pushing between $70-$80; daily chart back above $80 29
4-hour: Pushed up last week, pivoting around $80 – reflects risk-on move (industrial demand driver) 29
Bitcoin:
Weekly: Above weekly 20-period MA after coiling up; at $82,000 level 30
Daily: STAM 2 Bravo; nice 6-week uptrend above 20 and 50-period MAs, now running into 200-period MA 30
Coiling up with 200 coming down, 20 and 50 rising – awaiting catalyst or “sell in May” exhaustion after volatile first 5 months 3031
Oil (West Texas):
Trading just under $100; lots of weekly swings; Iranian counter-proposal rejection will impact 9
FX Pair Analysis
US Dollar Index:
Daily: Closed lower but current week showing indecision candle; nobody excited or full of vigor 32
4-hour: Bounced beautifully off 200-period MA, 50 acted as dynamic resistance; gapped up on Iran rejection but didn’t flow higher – waiting for Trump commentary and US market open 3233
Sterling:
Paul executed 7 trades across Sterling pairs Monday morning (5 wins, 2 losses), all short side given daily/4-hour/sentiment bearishness 3435
Cable: Just coiling up; no clear direction 3336
Pound/Yen: Sat on 50-period MA – awaiting Sterling movement or more BoJ intervention 36
Sterling weakened vs Aussie and Kiwi, strengthened vs CAD (but everyone has), weakened vs Euro, mixed vs Swiss franc 37
Very mixed picture; no clear trend; political and geopolitical instability not filling traders with joy – tread carefully in swing trades 3738
Kiwi Dollar:
Strengthened against USD, Euro (Euro weakness), Sterling (Sterling weakness), CAD 39
Kiwi/Swiss franc in range; vs Aussie in range (1v2 situation Paul doesn’t trade) 39
Kiwi strength visible across enough pairs to justify second place in STAM rankings 3639
Upcoming Events & Data
This week: Fair bit of US data coming out; UK GDP release 34
Active Trades webinar: Monday 2pm London time on “how to debrief your trading” 40
Next Monday Market Update: June 1st (two-week break for travel) 3841
Risk Management Reminders
Critical to stay on top of risk management, news flow, and order flow during volatile times with frequent sentiment swings 2
Markets flipping between risk-on and risk-off; expect continued volatility over next 24-48 hours as US markets price in weekend developments 27
Paul’s Trading & Resources
STAM model (Strength, Trend, Momentum) updates every 4 hours for Stage 2 VTP members; helps prioritize time, energy, resources 434
VTP Trader Accountability Group available for discipline, accountability, consistency building 40
Monday Market Update is not signal service or trade recommendations – Paul sharing his watchlist for educational purposes
Make 2026 your best trading year ever by joining the VTP Trader Accountability Group: https://bit.ly/VTPTAG
Hello Traders,
Thanks to those of you who joined us today. I should reiterate that the Monday Market Update is just that. A big picture overview of the markets, with a few ‘charts of interest’ thrown in. There are no trade recommendations, this is not a signal service – just what I am looking at and interested in.
Today we looked at; FX STAM, Meta Platforms ($META), Microsoft ($MSFT), Chevron ($CVX), Caterpillar ($CAT), and Van Eck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX).
Make 2026 your best trading year ever by joining the VTP Trader Accountability Group: https://bit.ly/VTPTAG
Hello Traders,
Thanks to those of you who joined us today. I should reiterate that the Monday Market Update is just that. A big picture overview of the markets, with a few ‘charts of interest’ thrown in. There are no trade recommendations, this is not a signal service – just what I am looking at and interested in.
Today we looked at; FX STAM, Tesla Inc ($TSLA), Boeing ($BA), Lockheed Martin Company ($LMT), GE Aerospace ($GE), RTX Corporation ($RTX), and American Airlines Group ($AAL).
Make 2026 your best trading year ever by joining the VTP Trader Accountability Group: https://bit.ly/VTPTAG
Hello Traders,
Thanks to those of you who joined us today. I should reiterate that the Monday Market Update is just that. A big picture overview of the markets, with a few ‘charts of interest’ thrown in. There are no trade recommendations, this is not a signal service – just what I am looking at and interested in.
Today we looked at; FX STAM, Goldman Sachs ($GS), JPMorgan ($JPM), Citigroup ($C), Bank of New York Mellon ($BNY), Netflix ($NFLX), and the FTSE Mid-Cap index ($FSTHM).
A quick follow up 15 min video to Fridays Video were I talked about WOWO and how Trump was fighting a 2 front war against Iran, and the Bond market.
There are some excellent fundamental/geo-political/fixed-income specialists out there who are far smarter and savvier than myself. I can merely share what I saw in the Price Action in the hope that you may learn something to take away. We started quite a turnaround on Fridays session, firstly in Treasury Yields, followed by JPY on Sunday night and then Equity Indices, Oil, Gold, Silver, USD and other currencies overnight Monday/Tuesday.
What do you think? Can the Peace Trade hold? Does it have the legs to go further? Or is it merely a relief rally before pain ensues?
Make 2026 your most structured trading year by mastering swing or intra-day trading — VTP Stage 2 & 3 now £99:https://bit.ly/VTP23SALE
Hello Traders,
Thanks to those of you who joined us today. I should reiterate that the Monday Market Update is just that. A big picture overview of the markets, with a few ‘charts of interest’ thrown in. There are no trade recommendations, this is not a signal service – just what I am looking at and interested in.
Today we looked at; FX STAM, The Irish Stock Exchange ($ISEQ), Thomson Reuters Commodity Index ($CRB), Beyond Mat Inc ($BYND), Nike Inc ($NKE), The Energy Sector ETF ($XLE), and the Global X Defence Tech ETF ($SHLD).
June 1, 2026
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