March 28, 2017

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The Dublin Traders Forum – Saturday 22nd April

Fellow Trader,

If you were looking for an excuse to visit Dublin then here you have it!

After the success of the Dublin Traders Forums in 2015 and 2016 it’s now time to plan for the first event of 2017. It’s time to put in your diary the all-day Dublin Traders Forum event, which will take place on Saturday, 22nd April  2017. 

You can purchase your ticket here: Dublin Traders Forum April 2017

This will be the third annual event in Dublin were we aim to bring you an enjoyable, relaxed and informative day for meeting market professionals in person and networking with your fellow traders and investors.

There are more presenters and speakers being added and they’ll be announced in due course. The following speakers and sessions are already confirmed for Saturday 22nd April:

2017 Market Analysis: After a tumultuous 2016 we will take a look at the possible major themes for the remainder of 2017. How many US interest rate rises will we see? Will there be a crash? Is China collapsing or changing? What does the coming year hold? It’ll be an opportunity to explore all these questions and more.

What I wish I’d known when I started trading:  We live in a time of amazing opportunity for private traders. Technology has allowed private participants to engage in markets in a way unlike anything before. Having said that – there is still a need to learn – and one of the best ways is from someone who’s been there before. Here Paul will talk about what he wished he’d known when he started trading…so that you can avoid the same pitfalls!

Simple Intra-Day Trading Set-up: Come on, lets admit it – everyone loves a simple set-up to take away and work on and learn from. So here I’ll give you not one, but two!  A couple of very simple intra-day set-ups that you can utilise in your own trading development.

Which trading path for me: Retail, Social or Institutional?:  Institutional Trader David will give some insight into his trading experience which covers institutional trading, private trading and social trading. He’ll touch upon the Good, the Bad and the Ugly of all trading paths. Not to be missed!

Traders Clinic: We will finish off the day with a traders clinic. An opportunity for participants to have their questions answered regarding the 4M’s of Trading: Markets, Method, Money & Myself. This is a great chance to discuss common trading challenges and find out how to overcome those obstacles and evolve to the next level in your trading.

The Dublin Traders Forum will be an event that will cater for engaged trader and investor who is eager to learn more and meet more like-minded souls. You have asked us for it and here it is. We are aiming to foster a Mastermind-type environment, which will encourage a free exchange of ideas in a stimulating environment with plenty of opportunity for networking. Furthermore we’ll feed you for the day so as to keep you sharp, alert and engaged! (No-one likes a Hangry Trader)

Our mission is to bring you a memorable day in comfortable surroundings at a reasonable cost. Therefore, we will be holding the price for the day down to just E147 on the door. Alternatively you can purchase one of the 15 early bird-tickets for the knock-down price of E97.

After the event, we shall continue the debates and discussion in the Hotel Bar where Paul will be buying the first round! This is a great opportunity to spend a whole day in the company of market professionals as well as your fellow traders and investors.

This event will not be recorded so don’t miss this opportunity to be part of something special. The plan will be to run two a year, one in January for the start of the year and the second in September for the post-summer surge toward the end of year.

Admission is by ticket only and there will only be twenty places available. After the success of the first event tickets will sell fast so, to avoid disappointment, I strongly recommend that you reserve your place NOW by purchasing your early-bird ticket.

You can purchase your ticket here: Dublin Traders Forum April 2017

We are looking forward to seeing you on 22nd April 2017 for a memorable day that is guaranteed to change the way that you see the market.

Warm Regards,
Paul

www.FXTraderPaul.com

March 20, 2017

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20/3 Keep an eye on USD

Hello traders,

I had a great week in London last week. I always enjoy connecting with other traders, clients and some of the institutions that I support.  It was also a lively week in the markets – which is a double edged sword.

Anyway back to charts and the markets and I want to draw your attention to the USD. Time for a quick heads-up Take a look at the US Dollar Index Chart below.

20170320 USDIndJun17Daily POSSIBLE HEAD AND SHOULDERS

I had posted a few weeks back on the Veterans Trader Project FB page about looking at a possible Head & Shoulders pattern building on the Daily Chart of the Dollar Index. Hopefully you can see how I annotated the chart above to show the possible Right Shoulder forming.

As usual the plan didn’t work out as sweetly as I had thought and price grinded higher the last few weeks. Until the FOMC event of last week caused a cavalcade of USD selling across the board. Now we have what looks like a very scruffy Right Shoulder…..but it is one nonetheless.  Furthermore we have seen Dollar Strength wane considerably this week across the STAM.

So far today we have bounced off the psych number of 100. I believe a close and hold beneath that on a weekly basis will be bearish for the USD and I’ll be building a position accordingly.

Take a look and keep your powder dry!  Trade well,

Paul

March 13, 2017

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13/3: Sterling Coil and a busy week ahead

Hello Traders,

Back to charts, markets and trading.

It’s going to be a busy and eventful week – lets have a look at the coil going on in Sterling. I don’t suppose its a surprise to see a coil happening in some Sterling products as everyone waits to see Theresa May pull the Article 50 trigger.

GBPNZD Weekly

Sterling coil GBPNZDWeekly

GBPCHF WEEKLY

Sterling Coil GBPCHFWeekly

Two nice coils building there on the weekly charts.  The GBPJPY coil below is a little different as it appears to be coiling up due to pressure building between the weekly 20& 50MA.

GBPJPY WEEKLY

Sterling Coil GBPJPYWeekly

Finally here is the Daily EURGBP – which has not been coiling as clearly as the others, but we have seen a break of a longer term trendline indicating Euro Strength and GBP weakness.

Sterling Coil EURGBPDaily line break

Lets see if that price comes down and re-tests the trend line.

So what are we to make of all this? My own view was that there was likely to be another attack on GBP once Article 50 was triggered – if for no other reason than spitefulness on the part  Juncker, Tusk and EU bureaucrats et al.

Interestingly on my STAM analysis after a weak start to the year the EURO has strengthened in the last week or two. Does someone know something we don’t? Do people already know that Geert Wilders and Marie Le Pen will fail in their Dutch and French elections? Or is it another example of complacency? What do you think?

On a broader scale I have started to see a few pairs coiling up across the majors – could that be a sign that something big is coming down the tracks? Or simply a case of a shift is about to occur?  Lets keep our eyes peeled and our powder dry!

Hope that provides some food for thought.

Trade well,

Paul

 

March 10, 2017

2 Comments

Leaping into the void: Yves-Klein – the man who invented a colour

Fellow Traders,

Another Friday / weekend read. Every so often on this blog I have to ask you, the intrepid reader, to indulge me as I appear to wander ‘off the ranch’ that is trading and the markets and into uncharted territory. This is another request to indulge me.

I was at the Tate Liverpool last week to catch the end of the Yves-Klein exhibition. (Yes I know you’re surprised, what can I say? I’m classier than I look.)

Now before you think I’m going all ‘la-di-dah’ in my old age this post is trading related I assure you. So please bear with me.

“For the benefit of the uneducated amongst us I shall translate.” (a great line from one of my fave movies – see I’m lowering the tone already.) Yves Klein (1928-1962)  was a French artist considered an important  figure in post-war European art.

In 1957 he held an exhibition in Milan where he showed 11 identical blue canvas all covered in a special ultramarine colour which became known as International Klein Blue. Quite an achievement to have a colour named after yourself.tate liverpool klein blue

And there is my photo from the exhibition in Liverpool.  Which I can assure you does not do the artwork justice.  Now many of the readers of this blog may now be asking why I would be spending my weekend in an Art Gallery looking at what looks like a plain blue canvas?

But here’s the thing – when I stepped back and looked at the image, I had a very different experience from those people around me. I saw the deep dark blue acting like a gateway drawing me into a different time and space. (I assure you that I was not on LSD – the most hard-core thing I’d had that day was a bacon sandwich!)

My experience was different from everyone else. I saw different things than anyone else. And I explained to my partner how it was remarkably like trading. I have often talked about how the screens are like a mirror – they reflect back everything about our own psychology. The good, the bad, and the ugly.  Furthermore everyone can look at the same chart on the screen and have a different experience – and draw a wildly different conclusion. (If you’ve ever been to a Elliot Wave meeting you’ll know exactly what I’m talking about.)

So we as traders/humans can all have a different experience from the same visual stimulus. This also feeds into a cognitive bias that is known as Apophenia – the human tendency to perceive meaningful patterns within random data.

In particular apophenia pareidolia is where we perceive images or sounds from random stimuli. Kind of like when everyone can see ‘the man in the moon’ or we look at a car grill and perceive that the car is smiling at us. Or we look at a chart and perceive that there’s a trading signal……when really there isn’t! Lets face it – we’ve all fallen for that at some point in our trading careers.

Anyway back to Yves Klein, his IKB collection brought him fame and glamour. As you can see from the photos, models lined up to help him create new art works using his IKB colour.

 

(Note to the young boys reading this: get your mind out of the gutter – those photos are art – not porn!)

As part of  his collection they also had a famous photo of his that I wanted to see – “Leap into the void”.

klein leaping the void

‘Leap into the void’ (1960) apparently shows him jumping off a wall, arms outstretched, towards the pavement.

Can anyone see the parallels with trading?  We as traders have to leap into the void every day we sit at our trading desk. The hunt for certainty ends the moment you switch on your trading computer – no two days are the same and we have no idea how we’ll fare and whether our account will have grown or shrunk by the end of the session (though we all engage in optimism bias to hope it’ll be the former rather than the latter.) We literally take a leap into the void.

However Klein’s work revolved around a Zen-influenced concept he came to describe as “le Vide” (the Void). Klein’s Void is a nirvana-like state that is void of worldly influences; a neutral zone where one is inspired to pay attention to one’s own sensibilities, and to “reality” as opposed to “representation”. (Wikipedia)

It might be said that we, as traders, would do better if we entered a neutral zone where we focused on our sensibilities rather than other market influences. Furthermore we always need to strive for reality rather than representation in market moves and our own trading.

Sadly Klein died of a heart attack at the tender age of 34. However his work lives on.  I don’t consider myself an art connoisseur in any way whatsoever – however I had to say that I enjoyed the collection and it did make me think about life, art…….and trading.

So there you have it – some art, education and trading all in one post – don’t say that I don’t try to keep the posts original and make you think.

Or maybe I just need to get out more and stop seeing trading related messages in everything I see and do!!

Trade well

Paul

 

 

 

March 8, 2017

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8th March: Post Budget Heads-Up: FTSE

Traders,

Just a quick note. Its been UK budget day and the FTSE chart is now showing a bullish flag forming on both 4 hour and Daily charts. Enjoy.

20170308 UK100Mar17H4 flag building

March 3, 2017

6 Comments

3rd March 2017: The plight of George Best and the value of Success Structures

george-best

Hello Traders,

Something a little different for a Friday evening / weekend read. I was fortunate enough to be taken to see the movie Best – George Best: All By Himself earlier this week in Dublin.

Those of you who know me will know that I am a north-west lad who grew up on the religion that is Manchester United (long before they were the mega-club of today). Furthermore, growing up my dad regaled me with tales of going every other Saturday to watch George Best play at Old Trafford (along with Charlton and Law: the holy trinity).

best-busby-law-charlton

For those of you who don’t know Georgie Best was a young lad from Belfast, Northern Ireland who went to play for Manchester United in the early 1960’s and became one of the best (perhaps the best) player of his time. He was an especially gifted player.

However having hit the heights of success at the mere age of 22 the rest of his life became a Hamlet-esque style tragedy. He was the first real sports superstar and as such there was no manual he could turn to for help and guidance on how to deal with all the money, fame, girls and adulation. We take it for granted these days but back then it was a completely new phenomena. He was trying to manage it all on his own – and failing. His life slid downhill rapidly as he descended into a world of partying, bad biz deals, terrible choices, and drink. Mostly drink.

Whilst I am admittedly biased in this case, I have always loved seeing talent operating at its best. I find it fascinating and inspiring, regardless of the environment or discipline.

What does this mean to traders? Well as I watched the movie what became clear to me was that George had no support or success structures around him whatsoever. He was a quiet young boy who was suddenly the centre of attention for the media and the adoring world  He was engaged in a lonesome endeavour to look after himself when the whole world was trying to take a piece of him.

We all make the mistake of thinking we can do it alone, that we need no-one. Trading encourages us to think that we can take on the markets on our own. And whilst we have to take responsibility for our trades, and the outcomes of our decisions, we are fooling ourselves if we think we can do it all alone.

The question to ask yourself is: who is on your team? What success structures do you have in place to help you handle the pressure of trading life, and ensure you perform at your best?

Maybe your take-away from this is to start to put a success structure in place to help you achieve and then maintain increased levels of trading performance?

These days we take it for granted that sports stars will have an entourage of support around them, but that wasn’t always the case. They have learned to have all manner of support around them to help them achieve success. Traders need to be the same – to have a support system that allows them to operate at their best level and be consistently successful.

In later life (when I was a kid) Best cut an increasingly sad, forlorn figure, who was in and out of the news for all the wrong reasons. By the end of his days he’d lost a lot of sympathy and support due to his behaviour. Though for some of us (admittedly biased and sentimental) supporters he’ll always be remembered for that night at Wembley in 1968 where he helped Sir Matt Busby finally win the European Cup 10 years after the Munich Air Disaster.

bestgeorge

 

February 21, 2017

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NZDUSD Update – the power of the 73 handle

20170221-nzdusdweekly-73-level

Yes, I know I haven’t been as prolific recently with my posts, so here’s a quick one on NZDUSD.

I was bullish on NZDUSD for 2016 – up until the weekly head and shoulders pattern set-up. The 0.73 level provided significant resistance as part of that H&S pattern, and price fell away from 73 down to the 0.6850 – 0.6900 zone. (Part of this move being aided by the Trump election Dollar strength trade).

Interestingly since the start of 2017 we’ve had NZD strength re-emerge into the markets and we had a price move into STAM2 territory from 11th January and then STAM1B from the 16th Jan. From here price moved nicely north…….until it ran into the 0.73 level again!

As always I like to see what the Price Action is like. How does the market react at a significant level of support or resistance? Well the hourly and 4 hourly chart didn’t really give too much away – price was quite choppy at the 73 handle. It was only on the daily where we ended up with a nice bearish engulfing pin-bar (that some would also call a fakeout) that let us know that a) the uptrend was over and b) the 73 handle was likely to hold. Next day provided a domino candle and you could tell the shorts were on-board. See chart below.

20170221-nzdusddaily-73-rolloverWhen that week finished we had another nice bearish engulfing candle – and much like the similar patterns from 10th July and 6th November the ended the up-trend at the 73 level. People have commented that price can never rally above 73 due to the NZD Government interventions / fears of appreciation. I am as always sceptical when someone says that price can never break a level. At some point it always will!

So price fell nicely to the 200 DMA and my next target is in the region of the 71 handle – which would also be around the 50% move down of the trend from the 23/12 low to the 07/02 high. Then, as always, I will wait to see how price reacts – could it launch itself back at the 73 handle? If so could it form a nice ABCD pattern (and finally break 73). Or will it fall away to the 69 handle thereby providing us with a nice range?  As always, price will lead the way.

Trade well.

Paul

January 23, 2017

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FX Trading Buddies

Here’s a wonderful piece by George about the merits of building your own network of Trader buddies, something I fully endorse.

One of the reasons I started the London Traders Network was to allow the chance for private traders to mix with like-minded souls and build strong buddy-buddy networks. The military works on the ‘buddy-buddy’ networks system to make sure the entire team works well. Now admittedly in private trading you’re on your own, but it still helps to have a good buddy to help ensure you don’t make/repeat silly mistakes and to cover your blind spots.

Furthermore private trading is a lonesome endeavour so its good to get out from behind the screens and mix with your fellow traders. We are after all social animals, and even the most committed shy introvert needs to speak to someone now and then. Also no one really understands your journey quite like another trader does. They understand the bad days and the good days far better than anyone else.

I thoroughly enjoyed meeting my trader buddies and getting the chance to socialise and learn from each other. We used to meet every two weeks for a session of trader chat, sharing tales and experiences and helping develop each other. They were immensely useful and enjoyable sessions.

Trick or Trade

A couple of weeks I wrote about the benefits of working in a trading office alongside other traders.  Though I realise not everyone is able to get into this type of arrangement – whether it’s a case of being able to find an office venue, traders to mov16231086_10154110624656218_696712100_oe in together with, or simply living in remoter areas where no others traders abound (or anywhere in Belgium apparently!).

The next best thing to being in a trading office is something along the lines of a “Trader Buddy”.  I decided to write about this today because I got into a trading buddy relationship just recently and it is already paying dividends for both of us involved.  And I think many aspiring traders could benefit from this type of arrangement.

Even though I am now working nearby some other professional traders (see photo for my view from my desk on Friday morning!), I…

View original post 804 more words

January 13, 2017

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13th/1/2017 The affair between Peso, Trump and Loonie

Happy New Year Traders,

Well its fair to say that we’ve started 2017 in the same vein as we left 2016 – fake news, childish behaviour, global rumpus and market volatility…..and that’s just from the supposed adults.

There are plenty of great tales to talk about at the moment but lets start with a simple, yet intriguing one. The adulterous relationship between the Mexican Peso, Donald Trump and the Canadian Dollar.

The Mexican Peso is the put-upon abused wife, Donald is the drunk redneck husband and the Canadian Dollar is the pretty new Mistress. Before you start thinking that I’ve lost the plot and consumed too much Port over the festive period, please bear with me  (furthermore you can never have too much Port and  I didn’t even get one glass of it at Christmas – the horror, the horror!)

I talked last year about the Mexican Peso being used as a proxy for the US election and now we’ve moved onto phase 2. Namely the effect that President-elect Trump is having on the Peso after his series of damaging tweets about Mexico. If we look at the chart below we can take a closer look.

20170113-usdmxndaily

You can see the huge move post the election back in November, hammering the rate through 20. However what we’ve seen in 2017 is that every time we see Trump take to twitter in some post-pub drunk twitter-rage incident where he lashes out at individuals, organisations and countries we are seeing an almost immediate response in the financial markets. As one of my colleagues said the other day – it’s now possible to move a global market in 140 characters or less – which is kind of intriguing, weird and worrisome all at the same time.

So Trumps negative comments on Twitter have been bad for the Peso. So much so that a tongue-in-cheek story was doing the rounds about Mexican traders advising the Mexican government to just buy twitter and shut it down!  (Thanks to follower @drumhowan sending me the link, a few hours after we’d discussed these currencies.)

Interestingly though there’s another angle to this story – namely the response of the Canadian Dollar. Lets look at the back drop.

20170113-usdcaddaily-post-trump20170113-usdindmar17daily

If you look at the second chart it shows the DXY US Dollar Index which was on a tear against all the major currencies – apart from the Canadian Dollar which held up well against the USD.

In fact if you look at the US Dollar Index it almost looks like its ready to roll over – especially after Trumps news announcement the other day. Lets keep an eye on that.

Furthermore what we’ve seen is as Trumps Twitter comments have hurt the Mexican Peso, they have helped the Loonie. Now admittedly there has been some help for CAD from a stable Oil price. And yet its almost as if the more negative tweets he makes – the more money gets shifted from Peso and USD into Canada – perhaps Meryl Streep and all her luvvie liberal elite friends truly are leaving the country and heading north of the border? What do you think readers?

November 23, 2016

2 Comments

22/11/2016 – The Yen Party is well and truly over

20161122-yen-party-is-over

Hello traders,

As most of you will know, when it comes to long-term trading I like to by strength and sell weakness. Therefore about a year ago I stated that I thought that 2016 would be the ‘year of the Yen’ as I felt that it would a) be a volatile year and b) the market didn’t believe that Abe & Kuroda could achieve their financial goals. This would all point towards Yen Strength for 2016

Well certainly for the first 9 months of the year it was a great trade to be long Yen (and short GBP, one of my other core positions for 2016.)

However all good things come to an end and, for the time being, so has the Yen strength trades.

You can see in the weekly charts above that the trend has come to an abrupt end in the last few weeks.  Interestingly I was telling clients back in September that I believed the Yen Strength trade had run its course, and I thought I would share that with you now.

20161122-usdjpyweekly-moveWhat we have here is the weekly chart of the USDJPY for this year and part of 2015. You can see that it was a strong downtrend (but not without its hard rallies). All year we had a series of lower lows and lower highs, good solid price structure that confirmed the down trend.

We also had a significant psychological number in 100 ahead of us and on 3 occasions price bounced off this level – it was clearly the line in the sand that the BoJ had hinted at.

The STAM was starting to hint that the Yen was weakening, and the rhetoric coming out of Japan was that the BoJ were prepared to do whatever it took to weaken the Yen. So when price closed above the 20MA that was my first sign that the trend was changing (its first close above the 20 MA for 9 months btw). We then had the 20MA turn from acting as resistance to turning as support, followed by price closing above the last lower high – a change has happened.

After that we were just waiting to see how the price responded to the US election vote and its been a fantastic move. After dipping down to re-test 101 we’ve traded all the way up to 111 (everyone knew that 110 would be too much of a magnet).

I’ve mentioned in the past that watching how price responds around the weekly and daily 20MA is an important indicator of the potential of a trend to change or to run out of momentum.

So we’ve had two sides of the story recently we’re we’ve had a weakening Yen, and a resurgent strengthening USD – that’s why we had such a quick and strong move of approx. 1000 pips. As you can see from the Daily chart below.

20161122-usdjpydaily-yen-party-over

We’re too from now? Well I expect continuing Yen weakness – (lets see if there’s a reaction post the recent earthquake). I also think we’ll have continued dollar strength until the end of the year at least.

So what will be my core positions for 2017? Well I shall update you on those over the next few weeks.

Trade well.