Markets response to the appalling events of 16th June 2016.
Yesterday was the 10th anniversary of the brutal and senseless murder of the Labour MP Jo Cox. It was a shameful and terrible act, and I hope that her friends and family have managed to find some sliver of peace and solace in the years since.
This piece isn’t aimed to be ghoulish or preying on her memory. It’s merely a personal recollection of an important time in recent British History and how it directly affected me and markets.
For those who can remember that far back 16th June 2016 was a Thursday, and a week before the Brexit Referendum vote on Thursday 23rd June. There are people who can cover the aspects of Jo Coxs murder better than myself. I’ll focus on markets, and what I can tell you from the market’s perspective was that markets had been starting to reflect the possibility of a Brexit vote, and had been selling-off GBP accordingly. My view had always been consistent – whilst I would vote for Brexit, I did not think that it would happen, nor more importantly would it ever be allowed to happen, due to the many elements of the establishment (politicians, civil servants, financiers et al) who were gleefully locked into a prosperous life suckling at Brussels teat.
A month before I had been at a Bloomberg event in the Gibson Hotel in Dublin which had been full of approx. 300 Irish financers there to discuss Brexit. The main speaker was the Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) of the time, Enda Kenny, followed up by your gobshite from Ryan Air on a panel of “Business Leaders” who, along with the audience, laughed when the compere said they couldn’t get anyone to speak in favour of Brexit. There was much guffawing from the smug crowd. I was sat there thinking, “I’m the only English guy in this room who truly understands the sentiment of the normal man and woman in the UK. These guys bounce between Dublin, London, Frankfurt and Brussels, but live in cosseted bubbles and have no real understanding of what’s going on.”
(As an aside I have been fortunate to be in the room with all manner of VVIP/powerful people etc. Normally even if you don’t like the person, or their politics, there would be some deference and respect for the position they hold. That morning in the Gibson was the first time I’d ever seen a head of state be treated with little to no interest or respect. There was no applause or standing for his arrival, people were talking over him, busy scrolling their phones, and dis-interested during his speech. I’m sure Irish readers could tell me whether that was a reflection on the man, his politics, or just general Irish society?)
I had also been at a trading conference in London where I got into a ‘heated debate’ (of a sort) with a well-known, now deceased, Trader and analyst who told me that as I didn’t have a PPE from Oxford (like himself) that I couldn’t possibly know how to trade, and that as he was friends with David Cameron he assured me that the Brexit vote would never happen, and he was positioned accordingly. His Aussie mate/analyst just added to the vitriol about me not knowing what I was on about and they both actively ignored me. (I subsequently learnt that he lost £600,000 of his own trading capital being positioned wrongly for the Brexit vote, and god knows how much of his clients money as well. C’est la vie. )
Back to the 16th June. The announcement of Jo Coxs death came out about 6pm London time that evening. Why do I remember it so well? Because at that moment I was stood in front of a full conference room, at the Shelbourne Hotel in Dublin, supporting the esteemed and well-respected Market Commentator Michael Hewson and his team from CMC Markets, about to start a pre-Brexit vote presentation on markets and its likely impact.
We were due to start at 6.30 and were looking at the relevant GBP/FTSE/Gilt charts before we began (along with enjoying the fine view over St. Stephens Green, and the generous hospitality). At the announcement of the death of the pro-remain Labour MP, by the hands of a supposedly far-right pro-Brexit fascist, what we saw was an almost instantaneous huge influx of capital into GBP. If you can look at the intra-day charts of that evening, you’ll see what I mean. GBP rallied hard against all major FX pair currencies. And did so for the next week until the announcement of the result.
My assessment (rightly or wrongly, and feel free to correct me if I had it wrong) was that market forces thought that her death would swing the voting populace towards voting remain to maintain the status quo, and traders were positioning themselves accordingly. I distinctly remember saying to Michael, “Well, that’s any chance of Brexit done and dusted with, it’s over.”
Here are two daily charts from the time. Firstly EURGBP:
In the run up to the 16th June (down red arrow) you can see that since mid-May the EURGBP had rallied as people started to get nervous about the people voting for Brexit. The 16th June ended as a bearish Pin-Bar as part of a double-top. Price then traded lower for the next week as people thought the Remain vote would now win. Price traded towards approx. 0.76oo before the result was announced. The sell off in GBP over the next few months took us from 0.7600 to 0.9200.
The second chart is the Daily chart of GBPUSD. Prior to 16th June (green up arrow hidden behind the fractal)we saw GBPUSD trade lower in the month before until 16th June where price printed a nice bullish reversal pin bar before trading higher for the next week. It traded higher from 1.42 up to 1.50 on the night of the vote (where it formed a nice 5-minute doble top before collapsing – but that’s a tale for a different day). 😉
GBPUSD over the next few months traded lower from 1.50 to 1.20.
I don’t mean to make light of the atrocious events of Jo Coxs death, nor am I trying to drag up old Brexit led animosity. It’s merely a recollection of an important week in my life, and British history. Its more like a digital legacy for myself as the years slide past. It was noticeable that at todays Prime Minister Questions there was a suitable mention of her….and renewed commentary on a return to the EU ( a different story for another day).
To finish on an upbeat note the Thursday night in the Shelborne Hotel with Michael, the CMC team, and Irish traders was a great professional and social success, and was the start of one of the best weekends of my life. But I’ll save that for a different blogpost. 😉
Trade well,
Paul
June 17, 2026
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