January 3, 2021

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Paul’s Monday Market Update Returns!

Hello traders,

I hope youre well, and have enjoyed the holiday season.

The Monday Market Updates will return from tomorrow Monday 4th January.  You can join them here at 1230:

FXTrader Pauls Monday Market Update

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/81643474266?pwd=ODN5V0tTVEFFMzA4NkRQU0lteGgvUT09

Trade well,

Paul

July 27, 2021

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20210726 FXTP Monday Market Update – I was wrong, quite some turn-around.

Hello traders,

I’m back from my week in London, and clearly markets loved playing a joke on me whilst i was away! Last weeks Market Update I wondered whether a rout was inbound? And it was, for Monday alone, and then the markets rebounded for the rest of the week! Some US Indices and Tech Stocks even hit new All-Time -Highs!

So today we covered: FX STAM, Antofagasta ($ANTO) Bitcoin ($BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD), Facebook ($FB.), Shopify ($SHOP) $DXY, $USD, $JPY and $GBP

Have a great trading week, and I’ll see you next Monday at 1230.

Trade well,

Paul

You can still join the VTP and access the Online Stage 1 Introductory Traders Course

Our preferred broker is Admirals

July 20, 2021

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20210719 FXTP Monday Market Update – a rout inbound?

Hi traders,

I did say that we were due an interesting afternoon at the lunchtime Market Update – and boy where we!

Today we covered: Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) Ethereum (ETHUSD) Facebook ($FB) and Wise ($WISE) along with the usual suspects of $FX STAM, $DXY, $USD, and $GBP.

Have a great trading week and I’ll see you next Monday @1230 for the market update.

Trade well,

Paul

You can now join the VTP Traders Community on a monthly basis.  Not only will this provide access to the Online VTP course but will also offer other benefits, such as:

  • Weekly Monday Evening Group Coaching Call
  • Membership of the VTP Discord community
  • Monthly Timeframe Chart analysis
  • Most importantly, every 3 months you’ll be provided access to the next Stage of the VTP

As part of the PRE-SALE for the online VTP there is whopping 30% discount off the standard price. The monthly price is £68 as opposed to £96 with the pre-sale. 

You can access this price using this link: VTP ONLINE PRE-SALE 30% OFF

July 16, 2021

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Still time to join the Online VTP Trading course at 30% discount.

Hello traders,

The Online VTP Stage 1 Trading Course and Community launches on Monday 19th July!

The training course will provide new traders with the ability to analyse and trade markets; whilst managing risk and improving their performance. 

Youll have access to videos and training materials which you can access at your own preferred pace.

You will also have access to the Monday Evening 7pm VTP Group Coaching Calls.

As mentioned above as part of the PRE-SALE for the online VTP there is whopping 30% discount off the standard price. The monthly price is £68 as opposed to £96 with the pre-sale. 

You can access this price using this link: VTP ONLINE PRE-SALE 30% OFF

If youd like to know more or have questions then feel free to reply.

Equally if you know people who’d be interested in joining the online course and community then I would appreciate you forwarding them this link: https://bit.ly/2UjgsBk

Trade well,

Paul

July 9, 2021

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Old Post – Watching how markets react to levels and zones of Support and Resistance

This is a past article written from the old Bullbearings site on Support & Resistance, which is still valid and will help support the new online VTP Stage 1 Monthly course – which you can join on the hyper-link.

Watching how markets react to levels and zones of Support and Resistance

In my last piece (I feel the need, the need…to slow down) I commented on several things that traders could do to help improve their understanding of markets in an effort to improve their own trading.

One of the actions I suggested was instead of watching Financial TV channels or reading twitter all day was to watch how the market reacts at certain levels. 

For my own view whilst there is fair amount of randomness within markets I do not believe them to be fully random. Markets are made up of people and people remember things. (I admit I’m being a tad simplistic there.) Within the markets that means that they tend to remember key levels that price has traded at in the past.  This is what gives us areas of support and resistance on the charts. Let’s take a look at recent activity in the Gold chart to examine this further.

This is the weekly chart of Gold which I use to help build a big picture on what the markets are doing. It helps me build ‘Situational Awareness’ (the topic of a future piece).

On this chart I have added red horizontal lines to indicate levels of support and resistance (S&R) and drawn blue boxes around particular zones of price action at these S&R levels.

Sometimes price reacts to a certain key level; sometime it reacts to a zone of price. Certainly on the higher timeframes it’s unlikely for price to ‘turn on a six-pence’ at a specific level but more likely to respect specific zones.

As a quick glance your eye is drawn to levels and zones where the market reacted. Perhaps it bounced off one of these zones or perhaps it broke through and moved to the next level of support or resistance.

Remember when you looking at a weekly chart like this you’re looking at pretty much the same data as every other human trader. They’ll all be seeing the same zones of support and resistance regardless of whether you’re a new private trader or a hard-bitten 30 year veteran of institutional trading. You’re all looking at very similar zones and people can anticipate the next likely area of serious volatile price action.  When so many people are looking at the same levels then they become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone expects something to happen at those anticipated levels…and invariably something does happen.

Let’s take a look at one zone in particular depth.

The zone between $1530 and $1570 became a serious zone of Support for Gold over the last couple of years. The last time price had closed below $1570 was in the final week of 2011. Every time price came back to that zone it would pierce the zone but never close below $1570 on a weekly basis.  This became a self-fulfilling prophecy where all traders looking at this chart deemed there to be sizeable support at those levels and looked to buy when price returned to these levels.  And for almost the next 16 months that would have been a good trading strategy.

That is until the last week of March 2013. I wrote about it in my own blog that I was awaiting a return to the $1530 – $1570 zone.  Price did return to the zone but then in one fell swoop price it sliced through both the $1570 level and the $1530 level and actually made it down to the next level of $1475.  Something had fundamentally changed, we were in a new paradigm for Gold and Traders had to change the mind-set to be able to adapt and profit from the new chapter in Gold movements.

Take a look at all the weekly charts you have access to and do what I did for Gold. Just draw lines of support and resistance and identify key levels and zones. I guarantee that price will react at those levels in the future.  How you actually trade off them I’ll cover in a future piece.

Till next time: trade well,

Paul

July 6, 2021

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The Veterans’ Trader Project (VTP) has gone online! Join before 19th July for a 30% Pre-Sale discount.

Fellow traders,

A few of you will know that I have for the last few years run a series of trader training courses under the banner of the Veterans Trader Project (VTP). Its initial aim was to provide an educated introduction into trading and financial markets for military veterans, which then expanded to assisting all new traders.

Over time the vision has grown into: turning veterans into traders, and turning traders into veterans of the financial markets.  Based on demand it has since expanded into a series of courses that cover: swing trading, intra-day trading, improving performance, and managing money for anyone looking to engage with financial markets.

Stage 1: Introduction to trading and financial markets

This is a stand-alone stage that will provide anyone with the basics of how to analyse, trade, manage-risk and improve as a trader.

Stage 2: An introduction to longer-term trading of FX, Indices and Commodities Markets

Stage 3: An introduction to short-term, intra-day trading of FX & Indices markets

Stage 4: On Managing Myself, Trader Performance, and becoming a Money Manager

Stage 5: Passing Trader Challenges;  becoming a funded trader (new for 2021)

All stages of the VTP leverage the acknowledged attributes of great traders and veterans alike: Process, Discipline and Self-Awareness.

Having run the courses in classrooms in London for the last 3-4 years there has been a clear need to move with the times.

On Monday 19th July the online version of Stage 1 of the VTP will go live and here is an opportunity for you to join it at a sizeable discount of 30% off the normal price.

You can either simply buy the course at a reduced price of £208 as opposed to £297.

Alternatively you can join the VTP Community on a monthly basis.  Not only will this provide access to the course but will also offer other benefits, such as:

  • Weekly Monday Evening Group Coaching Call
  • Membership of the VTP Discord community
  • Monthly Timeframe Chart analysis
  • Most importantly, every 3 months you’ll be provided access to the next Stage of the VTP

As mentioned above as part of the PRE-SALE for the online VTP there is whopping 30% discount off the standard price. The monthly price is £68 as opposed to £96 with the pre-sale. 

You can access this price using this link: VTP ONLINE PRE-SALE 30% OFF

If youd like to know more or have questions then feel free to drop me a note.

Equally if you know people who’d be interested in joining the online course and community then I would appreciate you forwarding them this link: https://bit.ly/2UjgsBk

Trade well,

Paul

July 6, 2021

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20210705 FXTP Monday Market Update – “They go up-diddly-up…”

Hello traders,

Thanks to those of you who joined us today for the Monday Market Update.

Today we looked at Aviation: Boeing ($BA.) Aviation ETF ($JETS) and Airbus ($AIR) along with the usual suspects: $DJIA, $NAS, $S&P, $XAU, $USD, $DXY, $GBP.

Have a great trading week and I’ll see you next Monday at 1230.

Remember the VTP Stage 1 trading course goes online from Monday 19th July and you can access the pre-sale with a whopping 30% discount here: VTP Stage 1 Online

Trade well,

Paul

July 2, 2021

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The 3 keys to long-lasting Trader success

With the imminent release of the new Veterans’ Trader Project Online Stage 1 course here is a relevant article I wrote for the now defunct Bullbearings site a few years ago. Its still as relevant as always

The 3 keys to long-lasting Trader success

I was fortunate enough to attend a presentation last month by Clare Flynn-Levy. A former fund manager turned fin-tech CEO her company ‘essentia analytics’ help institutional traders improve their performance and turn-around their slumps using key metrics gleaned from their data. 

She talked about helping a trader improve his performance by 0.5% a year, which you may think is not very much. However he’s running a $10billlion fund; now that half-a-per-cent can make a very hefty difference. She talked about the consistent challenges that most fund-managers and traders face. Regardless of the size and scale of their funds – the challenges are normally pretty similar whether you’re a fund-manager or a private trader.

The reason I mentioned Clare and her work is that at the end of her tech presentation she put up a slide that described what 3 key elements she’d found turned up again and again in the make-up of the very best traders that she’d seen and worked with.

And what were the three key elements on that slide?

  • Process
  • Discipline
  • Self-Awareness

I bet you weren’t expecting that were you reader? I bet you were thinking it was something more technical like: Buy when ADX is above 25 or always buy new highs etc. etc.

It wasn’t about having the best computers or charting packages or brokers (though they can help.) It was about having those three key elements that keep showing up in all successful traders…

The truth is that for those of us who’ve been trading for years you’ll realise the technical side of trading starts to take a back-seat. When I say ‘technical’ that can mean a lot more than just technical analysis. It can mean; chasing the holy-grail of a perfect system or having the best IT set-up or learning more about markets and indicators, slavishly following social media etc. It becomes a lot more about managing yourself.

After her presentation a few of us went to the local pub to discuss our thoughts on the presentation. What pleased me more than anything was that the first thing one of the other traders said was “Well those are the same things Pauls been lecturing on at us for year after year.” (Finally maybe some of my sage advice is sinking in!)

Now many of you reading this may well be disappointed to find out what those three keys are. They’re neither exciting nor sexy.  In a Monty-Python-esque fashion it’s not some wondrous piece of fancy equipment that goes “Bing!” when it tells you to buy or sell.  They’re not anything that you can show-off to your friends and family over.

However here is the truly exciting part. All three of those keys are achievable to the private trader regardless of their level of experience, or availability of resources. All three keys can be learnt.

I have many, many times talked about advising traders to read and implement the teachings from the book “The Checklist Manifesto” by Atul Gawande about how surgery teams developed a simple process to help improve patient survivability rates. It’s a fascinating read, provides the history and development of checklists (from military aviation) and why they work for humans operating in dynamic complex environments. Read- Digest- Implement. There you go – that’s process taken care of.

Strangely enough if you develop your own ‘checklist manifesto’ and follow it ruthlessly then, hey presto, what are you demonstrating? Yep, that’s right: discipline. That’ll be a good start. (Here’s a top trader tip to help you along the way: Have rigid rules and flexible expectations. Not the other way round.)

As for self-awareness I’ve always been a fan of the work of Robin Sharma who says in his book ‘The Greatness Guide’: “With better awareness come better choices. And with better choices you’ll see better results. Clarity breeds success.”

So how do you actually raise your self-awareness? Well there’s a few ways (ideally you’d do them all). First keep a journal of all your trades and your feelings during those trades. Secondly review your journal constantly and look for patterns. Ideally get yourself around other traders that will be able to objectively view your trading and your black-spots. (Come along to the London Traders Network social events and make friends with like-minded souls. Blatant plug there!) Finally think about using a true coach (whether they be a trader, performance or executive coach) to help give you an ideal space and sounding board for all your trading experiences. They will help reflect your behaviour and develop your strengths. I guarantee doing any of them will help raise your self-awareness. Doing all of them will help propel you forward at a much faster rate of knots.

So there you have it: Process- Discipline- Self-Awareness. The three keys to long lasting trader success. Rather than be dis-heartened and dis-interested why not attempt to view those three keys as something that is eminently achievable and will make you a better trader?  All of the successful traders I’ve seen and worked with have demonstrated those three key attributes. You can too.

Trade well!

June 29, 2021

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20210628 FXTP Monday Market Update – Lumber slumber

Hello traders,

On todays Monday Market Update we covered: FX STAM, Coca-Cola ($COKE) Lumber Futures, ($LBS1!) Roku ($ROKU) and Amazon ($AMZN) as well as taking a look at $USD, $DXY, $CHF and $GBP.

Have a great trading week and I’ll see you next Monday 1230 for the Market Update.

Trade well,

Paul

June 22, 2021

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20210621 FXTP Monday Market Update – Ohh for the love of volatility…

Hello traders,

Thanks to those of you who joined us today for the Monday Market Update

We covered: FX STAM, US 10Yr Treasuries ($10YR) Shopify ($SHOP) McDonalds ($MCD) and Ford ($F). Along with Gold ($XAUSUD) Ibex 35 ($IBEX) the Cac 40 ($CAC) the FTSE 100 ($FTSE) and Swiss 20 ($SWI) as well as $GBP and $USD and $DXY.

Have a great trading week and I look forward to seeing you next Monday at 1230 for the next Market Update.

Trade well,

Paul

June 14, 2021

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20210614 FTXP Monday Market Update – Transportation

Hello traders,

Thanks to those of you joining us today. Apologies once again for the internet dropping in and out – very frustrating!

So today we took a look at Michael Burry’s Transportation holdings from his recent 13F filing: Genco ($GNK) Golden Ocean Group ($GOGL) and Scorpio Tankers ($STNG) along with Copper Futures ($HG) and the FX STAM plus $USD, $GBP, $NAS, $S&P, $DJIA.

If you want to learn more about Michael Burry – his career and what he’s looking at then I did a webinar for Admirals last week on his fabulous career and you can watch it here: Admirals Michael Burry

Have a great trading week and I’ll see you next Monday at 1230.

Trade well,

Paul