October 17, 2016


17/10/2016 – The relevance of USDMXN to US elections for a complete beginner


Hey there,

I wrote a piece a few weeks back on using the USDMXN rate as a proxy for the US elections. Someone asked for more insight so here’s a piece aimed at the beginner trader to give some further detail about why we’re watching it.

So here’s a view of the US election via the medium of the US Dollar vs Mexican Peso foreign exchange rate. 

A brief insight into charts: 

The chart is made-up of Japanese Candlesticks. Each candle is one day in the stock market. We use these Japanese Candlesticks to represent price action because they give us psychological insight into how the markets is working and feeling. A green candle is bullish (the buyers won the day) and a red candle is bearish (the sellers won the day). Think of it like notes on a sheet of music. Individually they don’t mean too much, but once you learn all the notes it starts to sing to you. 

In an FX rate when the primary currency is gaining in strength (demand) then the chart goes up (when price goes up US Dollar is gaining in strength vs Mexican Peso weakening). 

When Trump is doing well the USD goes up and the Mexican Peso get sold off heavily (because investors fear of what Trump will do to the Mexican economy if he goes ahead and tries to build a wall). 

Relevant chart points: 

1.      USDMXN rate starts going up at start the start of September when Trump starts to overhaul Hillary in polls and then her poor health becomes known to the American public (the networks had been hiding it from the domestic audience)

2.      The big bearish red candle at the top is what happened during the first US presidential debate – Trump did poorly, Hillary was deemed to have won and the USD sold off and the Mexican peso gained in strength when it looked like Hillary was going to win.

3.      Price continues to slide down as the media orgs release bad news about Trump. When the Trumpgate video comes out on the Friday night post the market close then when the market re-opens in the Pacific on Sunday night price gaps down as the USD selling is underway and Mexican Peso buying is so heavy. The thing about gaps is that nature abhors a vacuum and price always comes back to fill a gap in the market. Always.

4.      That night also ran into the 2nd Debate and markets deemed a Hillary win – but now where near as strongly as her performance in the first debate. 

The interesting element is that despite Trump having a terrible last 7 days the price has just gone sideways – it’s in a consolidation pattern. I have told clients that if price breaks lower and holds below the 18.70 level then Clinton has it in the bag.  However if price started getting back above 19.50 then I’d be getting worried as a Clinton supporter. 

The reason this is so important is that it carries much more value than media pieces. Why? Because a media piece is just all talk. Here someone is actually putting their money where their mouth is – they tend to only do that when they have high confidence of a result. Or they have insider knowledge. That’s why markets people are watching the USDMXN rate so closely.  

Here endeth the lesson.




October 12, 2016


Part 1 – On building capacity as a trader

Hello traders,

You only have to google ‘Trading Psychology’ these days to find thousands of articles talking about the importance of Trading psychology to the make-up of a successful trader.

For new traders reading this I always talk about viewing traders through the prism of the 4M’s of Trading:

  • (understanding) Markets
  • (your trading) Method
  • Money (management)
  • (leading and managing) Myself

When I speak to traders I am always assessing them against those four areas. Invariably complete newbie amateur traders are focused on the first 2, whereas professional traders are always focused on the latter 2. The longer your trading career, the more you realise managing Money and Myself becomes the priority.

When it comes to managing self there are lots of variables that go into building a robust trading mentality.  For the purpose of this piece Id like to talk about three variables that have been a recurring theme for me recently in conversations and experiences with traders and non-traders alike. I thought I would share them with you all.

In particular I am interested in capacity, resilience and grit. For this part I will just focus on the first element.



Those are interesting definitions for capacity – all of which can be levied against traders (or anyone dealing in challenging stressful situations).

1 – The maximum amount that something can contain – could that be you? What is the maximum amount that you can cope with? Do you know? If so, how do you know? Is that a fixed element or something that flex’s based on your situation? Can you grow ‘capacity’?

2. The amount that something can produce – can you define your productivity in terms of capacity? Do you have periods where you have limitless capacity to produce? Do you have periods where you have diminished capacity to produce? If so, then why?

3. The ability or power to do or understand something – do you have days where you understand the market and your life? Are there days when you have not got a clue about what’s going on around you? Do you have periods when you have the capacity to influence situations? Or do you have periods where your capacity is reduced and life/markets shunt you around?

4. A specified role or position – do you have the capacity to fulfil all the roles and position in your life? To be a trader, business-man, mother, daughter, friend, sister, leader, follower etc?  Are there some that build capacity? Are there some that drain your capacity?

Those points are raised more as questions, or food-for-thought, for yourselves dear reader. Perhaps you already have an idea what capacity means to you. Perhaps you’ve never given it any consideration.

Personally I believe that our capacity is something that is in a constant state of flux. Not surprisingly when other areas of our lives are going well then we have additional capacity to deal with whatever life or the markets throw at us. And vice-versa.

I believe capacity is also something that can be built, whether we’re speaking of physical, mental, emotional or financial capacity.

“The mind, once expanded to the dimensions of bigger ideas, never returns to its original size.” – Oliver Wendell Holmes was talking about the mind – but I’d say it also covers our own capacity.

So how do we go about building capacity?

Part of building capacity is about doing it slowly in a controlled manner. If you’ve ever followed a physical training program you know that as you follow the program your fitness improves and therefore your capacity to do more increases. Or the ability to recover faster (that’s the resilience we’ll talk about in part 2)

Building mental and emotional capacity is an interesting concept. Your physical ability to handle stress and overwhelm will help – but then I’ve also worked with many super-fit clients who still had poor mental capacity. So how can you build it? Personally I think that having a wide and varied set of interests outside of trading will help you build capacity. An ability to understand and enjoy the arts, (whatever your definition of them may be) a commitment to something bigger than yourself – that does not have to mean organised religion per-se, it could mean a worthy cause or charity that is important to you. (I wrote a piece earlier this year on my personal reminiscences of volunteering and its value to traders. Please feel free to read again.) I also believe building mental capacity can even be tested through such simple acts as mental quizzes and tests that push you and keep you alert.

Strangely with building emotional capacity I can give you two simple tactics I have used. The first is about gratitude and being grateful for all the good things in your life (of which there always more than we often realise.)  On the other side of the coin whatever emotional pain you’re running from, you have to turn and face it. Simple as that. The way past your pain, is through your pain. I am not advocating some masochistic search for additional pain – I am merely saying that your ability and willingness to embrace your pain will build your emotional capacity to deal with whatever life and the markets throw at you. I see lots of traders who will do anything to avoid the responsibility of losing trades (loss-aversion bias) and avoid having to feel the pain of a losing trade. This never ends well. Embrace it rather than run away from it, is my advice. Yes it will hurt – but in parts 2 & 3 we’ll talk about the resilience and grit required to achieve any great deed.

For those clients of mine, and members of the Veterans Trader Project (VTP), part of the process begins before we even switch on our screens in the morning. This we do through the ‘Psych-Fitness Exercise’ every morning whereby we determine our Psychological fitness to trade before we even commit to switching on our screens. Sometimes the most profitable thing you can do…is to stay away from the markets. Trading when you’re tired, overwhelmed, distracted, angry (insert any other destructive emotion/word you like) rarely ends well. In other words, trading when you have reduced capacity is usually a losing proposition..

Furthermore we usually know in hindsight that we probably weren’t in the right frame of mind to trade that day which merely adds to the pain. Remember every painful experience is worth 1.8 times every positive one you have. This plays into managing your self-belief and confidence. No only do you have financial capital on the line you also have emotional capital in play as well. Think of it like a bank account – you have to manage your deposits and withdrawals otherwise you’ll end up bankrupt. Another example of capacity.

I have learnt myself (the hard way, always the hard way) that I have capacity, I have resilience and I have grit. This has been a great personal strength……..and yet also a weakness of mine. It leads me to take on too many projects, too many commitments and too many burdens. Why? Because I know I have capacity and its good for me to be stretched (rather than bored – as The Smiths sang ‘The Devil makes work for idle hands’) I also know that I like to be challenged and kept learning and experiencing all that life has to offer.

With regards to managing capacity, for myself, I have found that by understanding the boundaries of the situation (a trade, a relationship, a meeting, a sports game, a battle, whatever situation you find yourself in) helps me to understand whether I have the capacity to deal with that particular situation.

In terms of tactics to use, what helps me in dealing with all situations is to think of ‘working with the C.I.A.’ Now don’t be alarmed what it actually means is:

  1. Control: What in this situation can I actually control? (Here’s a tip: it’s normally a lot less than you think.)
  2. Influence: What in this situation can I influence? (What can I do to influence a possible positive outcome?)
  3. Accept: What about this situation do I have to accept? (What do I just have to accept that I have no control over whatsoever, for whatever reason. Here’s another tip: it’s normally a lot more than you think.)

This simple acronym isn’t perfect but I have found over the years that it has helped me enormously to make sense of a situation (trading related or not). Once you start working with the C.I.A then you quickly learn to focus on the elements you can control and influence and find tactics to deal with the myriad of elements that you have to accept. Once your realise how little you can control, for me, it frees up my capacity to influence the situation. Because I become more focused on the things I can do – and by doing so I become more effective whilst also ensuring that I do not become overwhelmed by trying to control or manage everything.


Dealing with overwhelm and burnout in traders is a constant battle – we’ve all done it (myself included) and you quickly realise that’s not a sustainable way to operate and live your life. By working with the C.I.A. I get to focus my endeavours on the elements that I can control. By doing so I am not using all my capacity, which in itself allows me to operate more effectively.  There have been periods in my own life where I have been running in the red-zone like an engine over-heating. Ideally we never want to get there – but occasionally stuff happens and we’re required to do so. It’s at that times that I’m grateful that I have the capacity to focus and deliver – and by merely focussing on elements I can control or influence I am more likely to make better choices and therefore return to normal operating levels sooner rather than later before I burn out or blow-up.

Readers Task: How would you define your own capacity? What could you do to build your own capacity? And what could you do to create an ‘early warning system’ that helps detect when you’re reaching the limits of your capacity and operatig in the red-zone?

Trade well


September 28, 2016


28th September – don’t trade on your birthday!

Today is my birthday. I never trade on my birthday. And I suggest you do the same.

What’s the point? You’re a trader and unless you’re working for an institution my suggestion is to take the day off. There’s nothing worse than waking up on your birthday in a good mood (which you should do regardless of your age) and then ruining it through some poor losing trades. Why ruin your day?

Instead, go and enjoy your day with the people who are important to you and be grateful that you work in a role that allows you to manage your own time like this. Take stock of what you’ve achieved this last year and set some goals for the next year of your life. Enjoy yourself – you’ve earned it!

Trade well….but not on your birthday!


September 27, 2016


27th September – Following the US Presidential Elections through the medium of USDMXN


Hello traders,

Yes I know I have been less prolific over these summer months – I have, as my good friend told me, been ‘working like a one-armed bricklayer in Aleppo’. Make of that what you will.

Anyway, here’s a big picture view that maybe of interest to some. Post Brexit the next big event is the US elections (especially as the Italian referendum keeps getting put back – (read into that what you may).

What you may not realise is that the US Dollar /Mexican Peso rate is a great indication of who is likely to win the US elections. Why? Well let me explain.

Let me start by  declaring my allegiances…..I simply don’t care for either of the candidates.  Whilst a female president would be good for the US….I don’t necessarily think Hillary is the right one for that accolade. As for Trump I was genuinely intrigued to see him run as a non-political establishment figure. I was really intrigued…….right up until he opened his mouth.

I have spent a lot of time in the US and have some dear US friends. That a country of over 300 million people can offer up those two as their best options is sad and disappointing. The world still looks to the US to set the tone….and this has been a circus of the worst possible kind.

So how does it affect the USDMXN rate? Well as you’ll be aware Trump has made some rather disparaging, and frankly, racist comments about his southern neighbours. This has caused all sorts of diplomatic incidents and bad blood between the US and Mexican people. This has been reflected in the USDMXN rate. Whenever Trump says something inflammatory or his polls rise then so does the USDMXN rate as the Mexican Peso Rate gets sold off.

Interestingly we’ve also been  approaching the psychological 20.00 level. Were Trump to move ahead significantly in the polls or win the election then its fair to say that level would be broken.

Having said that we can also get a true reflection of the outcome of the election debates by looking at the charts.


This is the Daily chart of the USDMXN and you can see from todays big sell-off that the markets believe Hillary won last night’s election debate.

There is also the question of the Mexican Central Bank and their plan for Interest Rates however for ourselves watching the USDMXN rate gives us a great real-money proxy for twists and turns of the US Presidential race. One to keep an eye on.

Trade well.


September 19, 2016


19/09/2016 – Don’t panic, I am alive! (And a trading podcast for you)

Hello traders,

Apologies for my lack of posts the last couple of months – I have not been slacking – quite the opposite in fact. I have been basically working 6 days a week for the last 4 months to keep up with commitments.

Normally I take most of August off and head back to the farm to drive Tractors and get away from the market. The break does me good. This year I’ve not had any time off since early May and it’s been mad busy ever since.

What has kept me busy? Well the fall-out from Brexit to be honest. I always knew I was going to be busy the month before the vote – what I had not envisaged is the level of work afterwards. I had expected there to be a remain vote – thereby kind of securing the status quo and then everyone would shut up shop for the summer safe in the knowledge of having that certainty and security.

How wrong I was!

Anyway a few months back I did a podcast for the desiretotrade crowd and you can follow it on the link below. Enjoy yourselves. I think it’s going to be an interesting final few months of 2016!


August 10, 2016


2nd September: NFP Live Trading Day

When we asked attendees of the London Traders Network and the London Traders Forum what they wanted there was plenty of interest in a live trading day.

So here it is! Put Friday 2nd September in your diary for our Live Trading Day.


Furthermore we’ll be able to introduce my friend and trading colleague Bryan Noble from tradernoble.com

Bryan has been a Futures Trader for 30 years, initially with Banque Nationale de Paris (now BNP Paribas) for 10 years and then Ulster Bank Markets before setting up a floor trading business in FINEX, a trading floor division of the New York Cotton Exchange, in the fledgling IFSC Dublin in 1995.

Bryan also runs the TraderNoble Platinum Service for his clients where he provides a daily commentary and intra-day trade signals for 9 major markets:

S&P, DOW, Gold, Silver, Dax, Bund, EURUSD, Dollar Index, FTSE

The plan for the day is for us to engage in a mixture of live-trading, education, socialising and some banter!

Friday 2nd September will be NFP day so the day will be in two parts:

First part is educational:

Paul will cover the importance of looking at longer term charts and how to use monthly, weekly and daily charts to support your intra-day trading.

Paul will also cover his favourite set-up for intra-day mean reversion trading.

Bryan, who is a proficient short-term trader, will educate you on his intra-day trading style:

– The importance of Bollinger Bands and Williams Index and how these two key signals influence markets.

– How to find a tradeable low in both the S&P and Dow using the McClellan Oscillator – his favoruite trading tool

– How to be able to go flat into a key event with orders above and below the market for the S&P and how to profit from this strategy.

Bryan has had huge success using this strategy over the past few years. He will do this ahead of the NFP and hopefully some of his orders will have kicked in after the data is released.

The second part of the day will be from 1pm where we will switch on the computers and look to live trade through the NFP event – in particular the post news moves.

Finally we’ll finish up with some post event drinks to discuss the results of the day.

Bryan gets his trade orders out by 0930 and the plan will be for me to trade them in front of the room and Bryan talks through his methodology, his thoughts on markets and how to handle life as a private futures trader. It will be a truly unique opportunity to watch and engage with a 30 year futures veteran, whilst also trading live.

So what’s the cost? Well the cost for day is £250 which includes the day with Bryan and myself. We’ll also feed you and buy you a well-earned pint afterwards. Furthermore there is an early-bird option for the first 14 people to respond where we have reduced the price to £180. A bargain for a full day with other traders.

If you want to know more then check out Bryans site at TraderNoble.com and even give his 7 day trial a go so you can see what he delivers every day and what we’ll be focussing on during our session together.


Trade well and we look forward to seeing you on the 2nd September!








July 25, 2016


25/07/2016 – A brief insight into Hedge Fund Recruitment

cnbc hedge fund recruitment
Here’s some insight into the world of Hedge Fund recruitment courtesy of CNBC.   In the old days the Hedge funds would often just steal the best talent working at banks. However with Banks trading floors collapsing in size and they divesting themselves of proprietary trading operations it means the pool of talent has decreased significantly. Hence why it’s interesting to see that Steve Cohen’s new fund has a 12 month trader training school as part of its set-up.
This is at a time when Hedge funds are not what they once where. In the old days they were proper ‘absolute-return’ funds and you could expect double (and sometimes even triple) digit growth. These days Hedge Funds has become a misnomer for all sorts of funds, many of which struggle to beat the market index. So why would a youngster want to join a fund when they could head off to an exciting tech start-up instead?
I have been fortunate enough to have done some recruitment for Hedge-Funds. It’s always a fascinating experience where you get to learn a great deal about how funds are set-up, what their expectations are….and you also see the good, the bad and the ugly in terms of candidates!

July 8, 2016


Toffs & Toughs

In the interests of fairness I am re-blogging my friend Pearse’s view from the other side of the argument. Some of his points are valid, others I would dis-agree with……

……..but in true diplomatic style next time I am in Dublin we shall sit down over a pint of Guinness and discuss our differences like sane, rational adult men. And if that doesn’t work then we’ll go for some bare-knuckle boxing, Bloomsbury rules style, round the back of the pub! His handle-bar moustache gives him a fine head-start in this endeavour.


Zohar Trading


Before I start it has taken me 2 weeks to calm down after the UK voted to leave Europe. My writing style is a stream of consciousness written quickly to try and capture my essence and thrust at a particular moment in time. This piece is not totally financial but hopefully it stirs some interesting ideas I apologise in advance if anyone takes offence as I am rather direct.

The above picture was taken in 1937 for 70 years it was was used by many in the UK media and beyond to try an impart the inequality and class division in the UK and especially England. 

Take a look below on the left hand side and you will see another picture also taken in 1937 but used by the Nazis as propaganda to frighten the German people. Beside it is a poster that was publicly displayed during the UK referendum…

View original post 1,198 more words

July 4, 2016


4th July. Brexit: so what shall we do now?

Ok, I promise this is my last Brexit piece. Promise.

I have been intrigued over the last couple of weeks about the behaviour of the sullen, humiliated, defeated media. They have become convinced that the end of the world is neigh.  Furthermore the march of 40,000 pro-EU youngsters at the week-end was seen as some great cry for a re-think. I don’t think so – there were ten times more people for the anti-Iraq war march from what I remember.

The remainers have also cried foul that the Leave side told people lies whereas the remainers only told the truth. Lets just take a look at that shall we. Obama told us that we’d be at the back of the queue should we Brexit. He’s already rolled back on that. Osborne told us there’d need to be an emergency budget to deal with the terrible nature of Brexit. He’s rolled back on that as well. Tusk said there would be no favourable negotiation post-Brexit. He’s already rolled back on that. Juncker said the UK would be punished for Brexit. He’s already kinda rolled back on that (or basically was told by Merkel et al to wind his neck in!)

The truth is that both sides did whatever it took to win. Neither side covered themselves in glory. But the voters ended up seeing through all the lies.

I find it fascinating that people have been arguing for an over-turn of the democratic choice of the nation. I find it fascinating that the Remain side had all the power, money, media and establishment figures behind them……and they still lost!  Furthermore more people voted for Brexit than for anything else in the history of British democracy!

I figured that I should end with a piece on what happens next? As I have been a vocal supporter of Brexit and that a lot of the recriminations from the Remainers has been about the lack of a clear plan on what to do I thought I would give my insight into what I would do.  Have a read and let me know what you think!


  1. NHS – now I know the Vote Leave side of the campaign made claims about directing the EU money towards the NHS. Now don’t all try to lynch me when I suggest we don’t do that!  Why not? They way I see it is that once I’ve spent my £180 mllion a week on the NHS that’s it, its spent. Whereas if I use that money to re-energise our country’s business practices that will help us grow and prosper, then the increase in tax-revenues will be enough to direct towards the NHS (and other areas). I hope that makes sense?
  2. Corporation Tax – well it appears that Osborn has stolen my thunder and called for a reduction to 15% in an effort to stop companies leaving and make us still attractive for FDI.  I was going to suggest going one further and reduce it to  a flat-rate 10% (lower than Ireland’s 12.5%) as an aggressive means to protect the tax-base and send the message to the world that we are pro-business.  Now I know that there’ll be some sucking of teeth from people but my view is I’d sooner have 10% of something than 100% of nothing. If a company still wants to leave despite a 10% tax-rate then let them go.
  3. Business Rates – Whilst corporation tax may help big business and maintain/create FDI we have to take notice of many of the reasons for Brexit vote in under-performing parts of the country.  If you’re in a part of the country that you feel has lost out due to globalisation or lack of funding then what did you have to lose by voting out?  Big companies may provide nice PR, but the reality is that real growth comes from the SME / start-up sector. To help with this I would  use the money to back-fill councils so that they can remove business rates from small-businesses. Imagine if every SME in the country could afford to hire 1-2 extra people from not having to pay business rates? That’s the kind of growth we need.
  4. Red-Tape Free areas. One of the hassles for SME and v small-businesses is the amount of red-tape required for operation. Furthermore if you do apply for grants there are a large number of hoops to jump through. Invariably most small businesses are too busy on their day-to-day survival to spend the time and energy to learn how to ‘play’ the system. In those under-performing parts of the country I would look to establish free-business zones that would provide subsidised offices/plants along with free business rates for companies setting up there. You provide the infrastructure in terms of HR/IT/Legal/Accountancy/Exporting support and just let them get on with growing and building a viable business.
  5. R&D: Lets face it – our past as a great manufacturer is not coming back. The days of heavy industry are probably behind us. Where we do have an edge is in innovation and R&D. As the world pivots towards the east in terms of capital and initiative it becomes ever-more important for us to find and develop our competitive edges. One of those is R&D (across all industry spaces) and that is something that should be encouraged. We have great talent in this country – let’s do all we can to unleash it!
  6. Do away with visas for all foreign students from Masters level education upwards. To help with the point above I would also do away with visa’s for students who wish to study in the UK from post-graduate level and above. Why? At present if your from the EU you can come here and study and live. Whereas from other non-EU nations you can study here, but as a general rule you only have  2 year visa post graduation. I would want to remove that. We want to attract the greatest brains from around the globe and encourage them to study here, and then stay, contribute and develop our R&D capabilities further. By doing it from the post-grad level you encourage those who’ve already demonstrated some application to education.
  7. British Citizenship for existing immigrants. I notice today that German politicians have considered offering German nationality to any British people living in Germany. Well how about we do the same and offer anyone living in the UK to have British citizen-ship? If you’ve come here and made a life here and you’re working and contributing then why not allow citizen-ship for those people? The truth is that immigration is going to happen and as I said in my very first pre-Brexit vote piece, I have no issue with anyone who wants to come here and make a better life for themselves. In fact I welcome that. (Please don’t believe all the hype from a sullen, defeated, biased media that all Brexit-eers are racist bigots. Nothing could be further from the truth.) If you were here before 23rd June and you wish to stay and make a life here then you’ll be open to applying for British Citizen-ship
  8. Re-engage with the Commonwealth. No, this doesn’t mean that I think that our commonwealth countries will just welcome us back with open arms. Nor is it me wanting to re-create the British Empire. Nothing of the sort. But its a great starting point for us to pivot away from a lethargic EU and towards a wider, more energised, global stage. It’s a starting place for us to re-energise our relationships with the entire world, rather than the narrow niche of the EU.
  9. Get the skandies on-board. I would also start to re-engage with Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Iceland. We have long historical links with these nations. They are also euro-skeptic as well. Then get Canada, Australia & New Zealand involved – they are also part of the 5 Eyes Agreement (where a good deal of our security and intel comes from). I said in one of my pre-Brexit pieces that I’d look at a North Atlantic Free Trading Area between Canada, UK, Iceland, Greenland, Norway, Sweden & Denmark. We have historical maritime trading links.

I think that’s enough for starters isn’t it? I have no doubt there will be plenty of people will read these and many will think “Pauls really lost it now – he doesn’t have a clue” and that’s fair enough. If people have better ideas than I’d be delighted to hear them. Now is the chance to grasp the nettle, in order to really re-shape our country for the 21st Century.

My only comment on the political situation is this. The political classes are tearing themselves apart because the world has changed – and they need to change to survive or die. But this is all being done without riots, guns or police brutality – this is a very British revolution!  Furthermore it pleases me that of all the 5 candidates for the Tory leadership none are old-Etonians – the first time ever. Furthermore all of them spent some time at state-school. Is that not something to cherish and embrace? Is that not a sign of a change? Something to think about.

All thoughts and suggestions gratefully welcomed.

Now back to the markets. Trade well everyone!



July 2, 2016


1st July Post Brexit Views:Losers

So in the previous posts I looked at what happened, followed by possible winners.

If there are winners then there’s got to be losers. So lets take a look at some of them.

Boris Johnson

Brute Johnson

It’s all gone ‘a bit Pete Tong’ for old Boris hasn’t it? In what should be the crowning achievement of his political career, namely winning a referendum and being a shoo-in for Prime Minister to political has-been within the space of a week!

To be fair one of the things I did get right was predicting that Boris would not be PM despite other protestations. Remember that 42% of the Tory party voted to remain and within that group of Tory MP’s I always thought there was enough clout to ensure that Brutus Johnson would never be PM. There will be lots of people just within the Tory Party that would want to knife him for all the trouble he’s caused. (Interestingly enough he actually got knifed from someone close to him…oh the irony for Brutus .)

Whilst I was never fussed about him one way or another as PM I do feel that he would have probably led a good negotiation with our European partners. For all his commentary, he was always pro-European, just anti-EU. But it looks like he wasn’t man enough for the job.

To be fair Boris is very good at playing the hand he gets dealt and will undoubtedly come back in a few years to have another crack at PM, so watch this space.

George Osborne

george osborne

George “Chumpy” Osborne has played this poorly from Day 1. Instead of using it as an opportunity to be statesman-like and project an image of heir-apparent to DC, he’s just ended up looking like a School Prefect at a minor school. You know, the kind of Prefect that got the job not because of any talent, but because no-one else wanted to do it and he thought it would make him popular.

He was a key architect of ‘Project Fear’ and it back-fired on him spectacularly. His call for a harsh emergency budget if the country voted Leave was an example of this, when he rolled back on that very quickly. Furthermore he went missing for 3 days when the country needed to see him front-and-centre as Chancellor. And you just know he was at home underneath his duvet crying like a spoilt brat.

I suspect he his wheedling his way around the back-rooms of power trying to build new relationships to provide him with some kind of graceful move. (I bet he’ll be part of the power behind Teresa May…god help us all!)

David Cameron (DC)

cameron sad


I had often briefed that I felt that DC would “Win the battle, but lose the war” if the Bremain vote was not a strong enough victory. In the end he lost the skirmish, the battle, the war, and probably his legacy which will be undoubtedly tarnished by this referendum. here’s not really much to say here is there? He screwed it: big-time.

Jean Claude Juncker


I have found it interesting that those unelected members of the EU (Like Juncker) have been the ones most belligerent in their rhetoric about making sure there are consequences for the Brexit Vote. Whereas those national members of parliament who have to manage domestic elections and economies have been much more conciliatory in their tone.  That tells you all you need to know about this man and his like. It is his type that Vote Leave was all against.

He instigated a Presidential ban on any other European member speaking with Britain, such is his need to control. But all we’ve seen is that it’s clearly shown were the real power lies in Europe, and it’s not at his door, but that of Angela Merkel (as if we didn’t really know that anyway!)

European Indices and Banking Sector

I mentioned in one of my other posts (and on some Facebook pages) that whilst GBP and FTSE were hit hard, so were our European cousins. In fact some of them were hit even harder than the UK. In particular the Italian and Spanish Bourses were hit hard, as were European Banks.

There’s plenty I could use but here’s the Italian Mib and Spanish Ibex charts

Ita40Sep16Daily jul 16Esp35Jl16Daily jul 16

The Italians had to bail-in Italian banks to he tune of E40bn earlier in the week. And this goes to the heart of it all. The EU consistently favours large corporations over SME’s and the people.  In a choice between Greece and its people and the French & German (and some UK) bondholders the EU chose to save the German banks over the Greek people. They have consistently failed to hold the European banks to account and as such this has done much to cause division within Europe.

Interestingly the Spanish elections of last Sunday night allowed the right-wing party un Rajoy to increase his position to one strong enough to create a government.  The consequence of this is that there’ll be no SPEXIT (not that it really was a player) but that also as part of Rajoys speech he made it very clear that there must be no separate EU deal for Scotland. Hard Cheese Nicola.

The Financial Times

How are they a loser? Well it’s purely in my eyes that’s all. (Which I understand counts for little.) I have always been a big fan of the FT and always tell my students to ensure they read the FT weekend to give themselves a good big picture view of what’s going on in the world of finance and markets. I’ve also enjoyed that they were impartial and agnostic-politically.

However their coverage of the Brexit vote was clearly biased towards the Bremain side. Instead of standing apart from the media, they just showed their true colours in the sense that they were clearly in the back pocket of the powers that be. Furthermore when they were wrong instead of admitting their error and providing reasoned insight into the way forward, they almost doubled-down on their bet by attacking the Leave / pro-Brexit side further. Very disappointing overall. I had hoped for better from them. But I suppose he people have lost trust in all the old pillars of society haven’t they?

George Soros (kind of)

Georgie boy is here because of his long GBP position pre-vote. Post the murder of Jo Cox MP there was a huge wall of money that flowed into GBP (as discussed in one of my other posts.) I had described it as the relief-rally that I had expected on Friday 24th, happening a week early. And it was some rally. Right up until it turned on its head at £1.50.  Thing is when you’re trading in the size that George was (I presume) then you can’t just turn on a six-pence. So I am interested to see how he truly fared on Referendum night.

However any losses he took on Sterling were probably happily covered by him also being short European banks (a subject I ve covered elsewhere). I only found out about that earlier this week. Nice to see that the big man himself had the same ideas myself about where the weakness would be.

So what other losers have I missed out on?  Surely there’s many more. Any thoughts gratefully accepted.

In the last piece I’ll talk about my own views that we could prosper from the Brexit vote.

Trade well,