July 8, 2017

2 Comments

The London Traders Forum 23rd September 2017

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Fellow Trader,
For the last few years we have run the London Traders Forum (LTF), on an annual basis. So please put the following date in your diary for the 2017 London Traders Forum, which will take place on Saturday, 23rd September 2017.

Get your reduced early bird ticket here:  London Traders Forum Autumn 2017 Ticket

For those who’ve never attended one of the Traders Forum events we aim to bring you an enjoyable, relaxed and informative day for meeting market professionals in person and networking with your fellow traders and investors.
I think this years event will be an interesting day because I believe we’re about to enter a 6-12 month period of uncertainty where we’ll experience a possible rest, retrace or reversal in the major markets. (It may already have started!) We want to help you prepare for such an event so that you can turn it from a threat into an opportunity.
There will be sessions throughout the day that will educate and stimulate and help you generate suitable returns to off-set the day. We want the LTF to be a good risk-to-reward trade for our attendees! The following speakers and sessions are already confirmed for Saturday 23rd September, with more to come:
2017 Market Analysis: It’s been a very interesting 2017 so far! This is a chance to view the dominant themes so far and discuss the remainder of the year. Acclaimed speaker and investor Kevin Barry will provide his usual market commentary – past attendees will tell you this alone is worth the entrance fee alone.
The Hard Yards: Martin Walker of ForexTradingLondon.com will be presenting on ‘How To Improve Your Edge’ and discussing what practical things you can do and use to achieve this.
Apocalypse Now! Paul Wallace will discuss how he believes a major market correction is on the near horizon and pass on tactics on how to prepare so you can turn a threat into an opportunity. The horror! The horror!
Notes from a Master: Bryan Noble of Tradernoble.com will provide some anecdotes and insight on previous crashes and how you prepare to profit from them in future.

Is Automated trading better than manual trading? Ivo Luhse is a ‘robot trader’ and founder of Evestin Forex – Automated trading systems with character. Since 2012 Ivo has been a full time Forex trader but the real breakthrough for Ivo happened when he started to build robots to do automated back testing for his trading strategies. Today Ivo trades his 4 trading robots and helps other traders to learn the craft of automated trading.
Building Mental Strength: Tom Hoyle will be providing the Trading Psychology session at this forum. He’ll provide a brief over view of the 3 key components of the human mind and the 10 emotional drivers and how they can affect traders. He’ll also be sharing some tactics on how to prepare for your trading session.
There are more speakers being confirmed over the next few weeks.
The London Traders Forum will be an event that will cater for an engaged trader and investor who is eager to learn more and meet like-minded souls. You have asked us for it and here it is. We are aiming to foster a Mastermind-type environment, which will encourage a free exchange of ideas in a stimulating environment with plenty of opportunity for networking.

Our mission is to bring you a memorable day in comfortable surroundings at a reasonable cost. Therefore, we will be holding the price for the day down to just £157 on the door.
However for those of you the first few tickets will be offered at an Early-Bird Rate of £99 – so be sure to make your move swiftly!

After the event, we shall continue the debates and discussion at a nearby hostelry where Paul will be buying the first round! This is a great opportunity to spend a whole day in the company of market professionals as well as your fellow traders and investors.

This event will not be recorded so don’t miss this opportunity to be part of something special.

Admission is by ticket only and there will only be so many places available. After the success of the previous events tickets will sell fast. We are down to the last 7 Early-Bird Tickets so, to avoid disappointment, I strongly recommend that you reserve your place NOW by purchasing your ticket here:
London Traders Forum Autumn 2017 Ticket

We are looking forward to seeing you on 23rd September for a memorable day that is guaranteed to change the way that you see the market.

Warm Regards,
Paul
http://www.FXTraderPaul.com

July 7, 2017

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7/7/2017 June Monthly Candles Part 3 FX RoW (Video)

Traders,

Here’s part 3 of the June Monthly Candle analysis. This doesn’t take long and every trader should do it. Its quick and easy and every so often will throw up a trade idea that may make your entire year (or decade!)

Enjoy!

Paul

July 6, 2017

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7/6/2017 Monthly Candles FX GBP & EUR (Video)

Part 2 Ladies and Gentlemen, were we focus on the FX monthly candles starting with the GBP & EUR crosses. Part 3 will contain the rest of the FX pairs. Enjoy.

July 6, 2017

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July 6th: June Monthly Candles Part 1: Indices (Video)

Hi Traders,

I get questioned about why I no longer do the monthly candles video – so I shall try and start back again. Mainly driven by the fact that there’s a couple of interesting ones formed last month. Part 1 Indices, Gold and Oil. Take a peak.

June 26, 2017

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26th June – Is Winter here? For markets that is. (Video)

Hello traders,

You may be scratching your head at my title of “Is winter here?” seeing as we’re only in June!  As always bear with me.

If like me, you’re a Game of Thrones fan, then you’ll know that for the last series or two one of the underlying themes has been “Winter is coming” a reference to all manner of madness descending upon the lands. If you watch the trailer for the upcoming series then you’ll realise that they’re claiming that #winterishere.

Whats this got to do with trading and the markets?  Well a couple of weeks back I wrote a piece entitled ‘Trouble at Mill…’ where I opined that despite the markets hitting new highs all was not well.  I was starting to get nervous that we were near a top (if only for the summer). I don’t enjoy making predictions because generally humans (and myself included) are normally quite poor at them. Nevertheless the price action of this month has got me a little apprehensive, hence the short video.  I don’t cover the Euro Indices nor the major Tech stocks….but take a look at them, some cracking price action on the Tech stocks. It’s like 99/2000 all over again! (Oh, but of course it’s different this time someone will tell me! Yeah right!)

So what do you think? Has winter come to the markets? Or am I just letting my bearish bias get the better of me?  I’d be interested to hear others opinions regardless of their choice of direction.

Let me just say that even though I think markets may roll over for the summer (and beyond) that is not an indication to just sell everything! Far from it…..you keep your powder dry and start to do some scenario analysis. Maybe we’ll get one final heave to trap all the last Bulls?  Maybe we’ll meander sideways for the next 3-4 months? Just sit down with your charts and make a few simple plans. Along the  lines of IF…THEN plans – ‘IF the market does ABC…..THEN I will do DEF.’  Keep it simple.

Trade well,

Paul

 

June 13, 2017

0 Comments

UK Election Night

Hey, sorry I forgot to post this quick video on the UK election night trades. Nothing really exciting. In fact the main action was later that day in the US indices which I missed from being up till 4am watching the election.

May 26, 2017

2 Comments

25th May: There’s trouble at Mill….

Hello trader,

On a day when the S&P500 and the Nasdaq were pushing to all time highs you might think I am barmy to suggest that things are not as rosy as they may seem.

Yet, in the words of the Monty Python sketch “There’s trouble at Mill…” and with that no-one expects the Spanish Inquisition!

Of course when markets are hitting all time highs no-one wants to look at the downside, or the cracks appearing……and once again that’s when people least expect the Spanish Inquisition. But as you’ll know our chief weapon is surprise. Surprise and fear. Our two main weapons are Fear and surprise. You get the gist….

So most of my apprehension has come from a series of articles, comments, insights and thoughts that I have read, seen and discussed over the last few weeks with other traders, clients and interested parties.

I am not a strategist, nor am I a fundamental analyst (if you read this entire article you’ll come to that conclusion pretty swiftly yourself). I am merely a trader who likes the big-picture and views the markets through the lenses of fundamental, technical, sentiment and geo-politics. Allied with a healthy amount of discussion with engaged parties I’m starting to build a picture that there is indeed ‘Trouble at Mill…’

Where shall I start? How about China?

So this week we had the first downgrade of China by ratings agency Moodys since 1989. Yes, it’s 28 years since they had any sort of downgrade. Moodys believe that their financial strength will erode as debt mounts. I am no China specialist in any way, nor have I tried to be, namely because the data (to my very un-educated eyes) appears to be opaque and, at times, a carefully constructed pack of lies. I have no doubt that people far smarter and better educated than I will be able to provide better insight on the China situation – however most of us have been ignoring it since the mini- crash/episodes in August 2015 and January 2016. As Brexit, Trump and the EU have been filling our headspace China has just been pootling along under the radar without any real interest from the rest of the world. I think that maybe about to change.  I don’t trade USDCNH but I always take a look at the chart now and then. Here is the present monthly chart – its been one-way traffic till the start of this year. (And there was a pretty strong sell-off today if you care to take a look). What we saw today was the Chinese selling Dollars and buying Yuan – was that an effort to paper over the cracks and demonstrate some strength in China? A case of ‘move-along, nothing to see here….’?  I’m sure smarter folks than I can provide clearer fundamental insight than I. You can read a Zerohedge piece on the Chinese intervention here.

may2017 USDCNHMonthly

Furthermore we have also seen the suspension of shares in Noble Group – a major Singapore based commodity trading house. Their share price is down 82% in the last year.  (As an aside I have always kept an eye on this stock after reading the epic book The Noble House by James Clavell. One of the great books on business, trading and Asia. Well worth a read. Though the Noble House was more loosely based on the history of Jardine Matheson – a Hong Kong based Trading House – I am sure finer brains than mine can correct me on that.)

So most of my readers will have no exposure or inclination to trade China – so how can they turn this into an opportunity? Well lets take a look at the Commodity based dollars, or ComDoll countries, of Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

The ComDolls

The ComDoll countries of Australia, Canada and New Zealand did well for a good time off the back of the Chinese commodity driven demand of the last 10-15 years. However those happy days are coming to an end.

In discussion with clients either in, or exposed to, those three countries they all talk about the property bubbles occurring in Sydney, Vancouver and Auckland (and elsewhere). Prices for both purchase and rental have hit eye-watering levels, at a time when their economies are starting to come off the boil.

In Canada, who escaped mostly unscathed from the 2008 GFC, we have seen a bank run recently and one of the countries major banks/mortgages providers Home Capital Group require a bail-out, in order to just be mothballed. (A Canadian Northern Rock?) This has helped start the bursting of the bubble.

In Australia there has also been a housing bubble however recent residential construction recently fell at its fastest pace in 16 years. It was hoped that construction would help off-set the slow down in the commodities/mining industries….but in fact their slowdown appears to be having a negative knock-on effect to the construction industry.

I will do a separate piece on these three ComDoll currencies tomorrow. Makes for some interesting insights.

My, admittedly simplistic, view of all this, and how to play it is through the prism of Gold. Take a look at this monthly chart of Gold.

may17 GOLDMonthly

This is the monthly chart of Gold and I see price as starting forming a triangle – as it starts to coil-up.

Now in my simplistic trader view of the world I believe that should price break strongly to the downside then my fears are un-founded as the world breathes a sigh of relief and the whole charabanc continues.

However if price breaks to the North and continues then that tells me that people are worried and running for cover. Remember capital is a coward, it will run and hide somewhere safe at the first sign of danger.

The best of the rest part 1: Art

Why am I talking about Art in a traders blog. Well I have done it before – but also I think it gives us some insight into where we are in the cycle. Here is a photo of a recent piece of art sold at auction.

usa-sotherby-basquiat-art

This piece of art is Jean-Michel Basquiats painting ‘Skull’ which recently sold for $110 million at auction (yes that really is $110 million) making it the most expensive painting to ever sell at auction. It has been described as a ‘powerful’ work of art – I shall let you the reader make your own mind up about that.

(Personally it looks like the kind of painting my 6 year old nephew brings me from school and I have to put it on the fridge whilst feigning surprise and wonder at their artistic talent. I wouldn’t pay $1.10 for it, let alone 110 million. However I am a trader not an art-critic. I’m not yet wanky enough for that role. But I am working on it.)

Even Bloomberg are running an art quiz asking readers to guess the price paid for artwork at recent auctions.

My point is simply when such bombastic spending of money on art reaches new highs and hits the headlines it’s normally a good indication that we’re in a bubble and a market top is near or already upon us.

The best of the rest part 2: The US and Trump

The Trump reflation trade is well and truly over – and now we’re in a weird no-mans-land. Yes, markets have been hitting highs…..but underneath it all there’s a great deal of uncertainty about the state of the US economy. I am not going to even touch on the bubble in auto-loans (and the rise in delinquency rates) or the struggling US commercial mortgages market (US Shopping malls are emptying fast and owners struggling to make repayment.) I have gone on enough already in this piece.

I read two articles which raised my eyebrows (in the style of Roger Moore – RIP). The first one was about the SkyBridge Alternative (SALT) Conference in Las Vegas where the underlying tone seemed to be one of nervousness at the biggest conference for Wall Streeters and Hedge Fund types.

The second one was on ZeroHedge (yes I know the guys a mega-bear and also is very hit-and-miss however with experience you’re able to filter out some of the better pieces.) A recent piece on his blog was about setting the framework for Trump to become the scapegoat for the coming crash. Which would probably please most people – he has made himself an easy target.

So there you go, some of my own personal insight into why am I feeling apprehensive and bearish. So would I be advising you to just sell everything? Well, no. Just because I am nervous doesn’t actually mean anything. Part of it is because I know myself – I know that I am mostly a bear (2/3rds of my trade are to the short-side). I wouldn’t describe myself as a perma-bear, but I know I have that bias and I have to be careful. That doesn’t mean I have been trying to load up shorts – what it means is that I have an idea that the global economy maybe about to take a rest/retrace/reverse and if that follows through onto the charts then I shall be looking to participate and take advantage. Remember part of the reasons for writing the blog is to help me clarify my own thoughts and ideas.

Its perfectly possible that markets could continue north for another 3-12 months. It could do that very easily. What I have learnt over the years is that things tend to happen slowly, and then they happen very quickly. It’s the same with markets. Whilst there maybe strain and cracks they can still continue trudging north until something triggers a melt-down. It’s when the real signs of that melt-down occur that I will start to prepare to attack. Until then it’s business as normal. Keep your powder dry.

I hope you found that interesting and provides some insight. As always I caveat it with the fact that I am a trader. I have no doubt that finer brains than mine will read this and disagree, or be able to provide better examples/data. I always welcome such debate.

Trade well!

Paul

 

May 22, 2017

1 Comment

22nd May: Euro Review

Hello traders,

Last week I did a quick review on GBP – this week its the Euro’s turn as it’s been the strongest across the board on the STAM for a couple of weeks now. There’s been some great trades the last few weeks – but there will still be some good opportunities for swing trades going forward.

Trade well,

Paul

May 15, 2017

3 Comments

15th May : GBP Weekly Review

Hello Traders,

Yes, I know its my first video for a while – I hold my hands up!

Anyway here’s a quick review of the GBP weekly charts. After a storming run on GBP across the board, last week the wind was taken from its sails. I suspect we’ll now just spend the next few weeks jostling around until the election result.

Enjoy, and trade well,

Paul

May 13, 2017

0 Comments

Developing Longer Term Trading Ability

playing chess

Fellow Traders

 

Some of you may know that I’ve been running a trading project to help Veterans re-train and give them a start in Financial markets. The longer-term plan will be to help young guys and girls who’ve been injured in recent conflicts by providing them with an opportunity to do something new and challenging.

 

Stage 1 of this course was aimed at people who had very little experience of  trading or financial markets. Its aim being to generate routine, risk management and good behaviors from the outset. It’s based on the recurring traits of good traders: process, discipline and self-awareness.

 

I’m now ready to run the Stage 2 sessions for 2017 which will focus on longer term trading of FX, Commodities & Indices markets. This may be of more interest to you if you already have some trading experience. As usual there’ll be a mixture of topics covering the 4M’s of Trading: Markets, Methods, Money & Myself.

 

It will cover:

 

– Understanding the behaviour of FX markets and how to use it to your advantage

 

– Understand how to start using simple options to build positions for longer term trades

 

– Developing profitability from existing set-ups

 

– Additional trade set-ups and tactics

 

– How to improve the reward-to-risk ratio for your trades

 

– A simple mechanical end of day position trading strategy

 

– Understanding the true importance of money management and position sizing

 

– Building your own longer term trading plan

 

– Developing your own trading business

 

Like the Stage 1 this will run for 5 sessions over 5 months with a mixture of trading floor and online sessions in a building block approach. The aim is to develop competency at building a picture, selecting the right instruments, trade management and improving profitability.

 

I only run one of these courses a year. The aim is to run the first trading floor session on Friday 19th May.  The sessions will run for 5 months and will also include plugins for the platform. The cost will be £447 for the 5 months of working together. Previous members of the project will tell you that the sessions are real value for money. It’s on a first-come-first-served basis with Veterans taking the priority for slots.

 

If you’re interested then reply here or drop me a line at paul@FXTraderPaul.com

 

Trade well,

 

Paul

@FXTraderPaul