Thanks to those of you who joined us today. I should reiterate that the Monday Market Update is just that. A big picture overview of the markets, with a few ‘charts of interest’ thrown in. There are no trade recommendations, this is not a signal service – just what I am looking at and interested in.
Today we looked at; FX STAM, RTX Corporation ($RTX), Dassault Aviation ($AM), GE Aerospace ($GE), Northrop Grumman Corporation ($NOC), Leonardo ($LDO), SAAB AB ($SAAB-B), United Airlines Holdings ($UAL), and Netflix, Inc. ($NFLX).
I hope you’re well, and have enjoyed this eventful start to 2026!
The Monday Market Update returns for 2026. We always take a look at the strength & weakness within FX, Indices & Commodities markets. We take a look at a few ‘Charts of Interest’, and then finish up with a look at the live markets. It’s me sharing what I’m looking at which may help you with your own analysis.
If you’re unable to join the live call then the recording is posted here on the blog, and snippets will be added to the YouTube Channel over the following days.
If there’s a topic, or an instrument you’d like to see me cover then you can ping me before hand at paul@FXTraderPaul.com
After running the UK intraday sessions throughout 2025, one thing has become very clear:
Intraday trading works — but it’s demanding. It requires screen time, constant decision-making, and high mental energy.
For many traders, that’s fine in short bursts. But it’s not always the most sustainable model over months and years.
That’s why, for Q1 2026, I’m opening USD Edge. JOIN HERE
USD Edge is a 10-week FX swing trading group mentorship designed to help traders step back from intraday intensity and build a calm, repeatable process around USD-driven FX markets.
This isn’t about doing more trades. It’s about making better decisions, less often.
Swing trading allows you to:
Work from 4-hour charts, not constant price noise
Hold trades for days, not minutes
Reduce emotional overtrading
Trade alongside work, family, and real life
Build a process that doesn’t depend on being glued to screens
Why do this now?
Because Q1 is where trading habits for the year are formed.
If you don’t deliberately change how you trade early in the year, you usually end up repeating the same patterns — just in different market conditions.
USD Edge is designed to help you reset your approach:
Clear rules
Defined risk
Fewer, higher-quality setups
A structure you can repeat week after week
Why do this in a small group?
Because progress happens faster when:
Your trades are reviewed, not ignored
Your thinking is challenged, not reinforced
You’re guided by an experienced trader who has seen multiple market cycles play out
You’re accountable to a process, not just yourself
This is not a signals room. Signals are used only as guided trade examples, to explain logic, risk, and management — not as something to blindly follow.
Programme snapshot:
Runs: Mid-January → End of March (10 weeks)
2 structured group sessions per week
4 individual 1-to-1 coaching sessions
USD-focused FX markets (GBP & EUR secondary)
4-hour timeframe
Trading Monday to Thursday only
Delivered over Zoom, and via Teachable, just like previous sessions.
Investment:
Standard price: £697
Founding Cohort: £497 for the first 3 traders only
USD Edge is for traders who want clarity, discipline, and sustainability — not constant activity.
If intraday trading helped you build skills, USD Edge shows you how to build something you can maintain.
Make 2026 your best trading year ever by joining the VTP Trader Accountability Group: https://bit.ly/VTPTAG
Hello Traders,
Thanks to those of you who joined us today. I should reiterate that the Monday Market Update is just that. A big picture overview of the markets, with a few ‘charts of interest’ thrown in. There are no trade recommendations, this is not a signal service – just what I am looking at and interested in.
Today we looked at; FX STAM, JP Morgan Chase & Co ($JPM), BlackRock Inc ($BLK), Bank of America Corporation ($BAC), State Street Financial Sector ETF ($XLF), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co ($TSM).
Make 2026 your best trading year ever by joining the VTP Trader Accountability Group: https://bit.ly/VTPTAG
Hello Traders,
Thanks to those of you who joined us today. I should reiterate that the Monday Market Update is just that. A big picture overview of the markets, with a few ‘charts of interest’ thrown in. There are no trade recommendations, this is not a signal service – just what I am looking at and interested in.
Today we looked at; FX STAM, Chevron Corporation ($CVX), Exxon Mobil Corporation ($XOM), State Street Energy Sector ETF ($XLE), iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF( $ITA), Palantir Technologies ($PLTR), SAAB Aerospace ($SAAB_B), and Jeffries Financial Group ($JEF).
As 2025 comes to a close, many traders look ahead with good intentions.
Very few stop to properly review how they’ve been operating — and even fewer put support in place to ensure 2026 unfolds differently.
This short series was written to address that gap.
Not with hype. Not with predictions. But with standards.
Below are the four parts of the Sharpen Your Edge for 2026 series, designed to help you reflect properly and decide how you want to approach the year ahead.
Part 1 – Have You Actually Reviewed 2025?
Why remembering a trading year isn’t the same as reviewing it — and why that difference matters.
Over the last few days, I’ve covered three things that quietly shape a trader’s results far more than most people realise:
Whether they formally review a year, or just remember it
The cost of drifting forward without understanding what actually happened
Why hope and intention aren’t enough to form a real plan
The final question is a practical one:
Once you’ve reviewed and planned properly — how do you actually support progress?
Because insight without support rarely lasts.
Why Insight Alone Isn’t Enough
Most traders don’t struggle because they lack understanding.
They struggle because:
discipline fades over time
good intentions weaken under pressure
old habits reappear when markets get difficult
This isn’t a personal failing. It’s how human behaviour works.
In professional performance environments — whether military, sport, or business — progress is supported by structure, review, and accountability. Trading is no different.
The question isn’t whether support helps. It’s what type of support makes sense for you.
Different Traders, Different Needs
There isn’t one “right” way to support progress. What matters is choosing something that fits where you are now, not where you think you should be.
If you’ve read the first two pieces, you’ll already know where this is heading.
Review matters. Skipping it leads to drift. Drift quietly repeats years.
The next question is the one most traders avoid:
Do you actually have a plan for how you’re going to operate in 2026?
Not a vague intention. Not a resolution. A plan.
What Most Traders Mean by “A Plan”
When traders say they have a plan for the new year, it usually sounds like this:
“I’ll be more disciplined.”
“I’ll trade less.”
“I’ll focus on higher-quality setups.”
“I’ll manage risk better.”
None of those are plans.
They’re aspirations.
A real plan answers harder, more practical questions:
What markets will I focus on — and which will I avoid?
Under what conditions do I trade best?
What rules matter most when pressure is high?
How will I recognise when discipline is slipping?
What does “good execution” actually look like for me?
If those answers aren’t clear, written down, and understood, then January enthusiasm does most of the work — and that rarely lasts.
Why Planning Fails Without Review
This is where many traders trip themselves up.
They try to plan forward without looking back properly.
That’s like adjusting your route without knowing where you went wrong.
If you don’t understand:
why certain drawdowns happened
where rules broke down
which behaviours helped or hurt performance
…then your “plan” is just guesswork dressed up as confidence.
Review informs planning. Planning without review is just hope with structure.
External Perspective Matters
One of the reasons traders struggle with planning on their own is proximity.
You’re too close to your own decisions. Too close to your emotions. Too close to the stories you tell yourself about what’s working and what isn’t.
That’s not a flaw — it’s human.
This is why professional performance environments don’t rely on self-assessment alone. They use external review to separate facts from feelings.
That’s also why, every year, I work with traders who don’t want ongoing coaching — they want clarity.
They want:
a proper review of how they’ve been operating
a clear assessment of what actually needs to change
a practical plan for the year ahead
Nothing more. Nothing less.
A One-Off Way to Do This Properly
For traders who want that level of clarity, I offer a Trader Development Session (TDS).
It’s a one-off, 1-to-1 session focused on:
reviewing the previous year properly
identifying the behaviours that matter most
and designing a clear, realistic operating plan for the year ahead
No hype. No signals. No endless programme.
Just structured review, honest conversation, and a plan you can actually execute.
If that sounds useful, you can read more about the Trader Development Session here: 👉 Trader Development Session
One Final Thought
2026 will arrive whether you plan for it or not.
The difference between traders who progress and those who repeat years is rarely talent or intelligence.
It’s whether they’re willing to stop, review honestly, and plan deliberately.
In the final piece, I’ll outline the different ways traders choose to support that process — from group accountability to focused 1-to-1 work — so you can decide what makes sense for you as you start the new year.
In the first piece, I asked a simple question: Have you actually reviewed your trading year — or have you just remembered it?
Today, I want to go one step further, because there’s a cost to skipping that review. And it’s rarely obvious at the time.
Most traders think the damage comes from bad trades. In reality, it comes from unexamined behaviour.
Drift Is Expensive — But Subtle
When traders don’t formally review a year, nothing dramatic usually happens straight away.
There’s no single blow-up. No obvious failure.
Instead, something quieter sets in: drift.
Rules get bent slightly more often. Preparation gets a little looser. Sizing creeps up after wins and tightens after losses. Trades are taken “because it looks good”, not because they were planned.
None of this feels catastrophic in the moment. But over time, it compounds.
And because it’s gradual, traders rarely connect the dots back to the absence of review.
The Same Year, Repeated
One of the patterns I see most often is traders having versions of the same year.
Different markets. Different instruments. Different headlines.
But the same outcomes.
They start each year hopeful. They promise themselves better discipline. They aim to be more selective.
And yet, six or eight weeks in, they’re dealing with the same frustrations:
inconsistent execution
emotional decision-making
breaking rules they know they shouldn’t
confidence wobbling after perfectly normal drawdowns
When I ask whether they reviewed the previous year properly, the answer is usually some variation of, “Not really.”
That’s not a coincidence.
If you don’t understand what actually caused last year’s results, you don’t get a clean slate. You get a rerun.
Review Is Not About Beating Yourself Up
This is where many traders get it wrong.
They avoid review because they think it’s about criticism or self-judgement. It isn’t.
A proper review is neutral.
It’s about facts, patterns, and behaviour — not blame.
It asks:
What did I do consistently well?
Where did I lose control?
Under what conditions did my process break down?
What rules mattered most — and which ones did I ignore?
Without that clarity, traders default to vague intentions: “I’ll be more disciplined.” “I’ll trade less.” “I’ll manage risk better.”
Those aren’t plans. They’re wishes.
Why This Matters Now
The reason I’m writing this at the end of December is simple.
January has a way of giving traders false confidence. New calendar. Fresh motivation. A sense of reset.
But if you haven’t reviewed properly, that confidence is built on nothing solid.
The market doesn’t care that it’s a new year. Your habits don’t magically reset at midnight on December 31st.
If you don’t stop and examine what actually happened in 2025, you start 2026 reacting — not operating deliberately.
The Real Cost
The real cost of not reviewing isn’t one bad trade.
It’s:
months of repeating avoidable mistakes
confidence eroded by inconsistency
effort expended without progress
another year where things felt “close” but never quite clicked
That’s not a market problem. That’s a process problem.
In the next piece, I’ll look at what most traders think a plan for the new year is — and why that’s usually not enough to change anything.
For now, reflect on this:
If you don’t review properly, you don’t move forward — you loop.
January 19, 2026
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