Jan 22nd: Yen Update – nothing to get excited about

There have been two periods in the last 16 months where being short Yen was the easy trade. From Nov 2012 through to May 2013 and then from Nov 2013 till the end of Dec 2013 provided some great trending opportunities.

But what has Yen done since then?  How has 2014 treated all those Yen bears? Well not so well so far I’d suggest. The weekly charts gave us a hint of a possible slow-down or retrace in what had been an aggressive tear for the last 8 weeks of the 2013.  Most of the major Yen pairs have spent the last 2-3 weeks of January in a retrace or consolidation move.  Does that mean the great Abe-nomics inspired tear is over?  I doubt it.  I think it’s just a case of a breather. Certainly Yen remains the weakest across my STAM analysis.  I’m just going to put up a few Yen charts with the odd comment as they’re all pretty similar (apart from AUDJPY).

USDJPY

USDJPY is the one I think that shows the most ready to head back and assault that 105.40 level. Closes above there on a weekly basis would convince me that the next leg up is on.

EURJPY / GBPJPY / CHFJPY

Ok, taking a look at EURJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY the charts are not too dissimilar. All with a retrace / consolidation after a strong, aggressive move north.  No real surprises there. I’ll just watch USDJPY, GBPJPY & EURJPY for an alert of the next major move.

AUDJPY

Now the AUDJPY is a pretty grim chart. Mostly due to the fact that both AUD and JPY have been bottom of the Currency Strength matrix since May / June of last year. They’re both vying to be the worst performing currency…and it shows in their cross currency chart.  Its messy and quite frankly you’re best off leaving it at the moment if you’re a daily chart trader. (The same could apply to CADJPY.)

So at the moment I’m just sat waiting with yen. When it give me a suitable signal then I’ll trade it. Until then I’m doing nothing.

Trade well.

Paul