June 3rd: Watching the FTSE – which way next?

I’m back from my holidays in the Highlands of Scotland. I can’t say they were as relaxing as Id hoped (due to unforeseen circumstances) however I’m glad I went as it’s a truly stunning part of the world.

Now I’m back at my desk, looking at my charts and getting back up to speed.  When looking at the Indices today I was interested by what I saw in the FTSE.  A lot of the major Indices (S&P, DOW & Dax) have been making all time highs – except the FTSE.  Having made new highs for the year  price over the last month has consolidated above the 6800 handle but going no further.  So is it a laggard – waiting to follow those other indices higher?  Or is it a leader showing us the way of ebbing bullish momentum before it rolls over short?

20140603 ftse weekly blog

 

The Daily charts are interesting, but not really giving us a clearer picture of whats going on.  The Daily picture could either be showing us a triangle of price coiling up before it blows north (the classical Technical Analysis has a triangle blowing in the direction that it entered) in a continuation pattern. See below.

20140603 ftse daily triangle blog

 

Or alternatively the daily price is forming a double top and is looking to roll-over and fall?  Certainly the Weekly momentum has rolled to the bearish side. I’d need to see a break of the swing low of 6761 on the 20th May to convince me of a move down. See below:

20140603 ftse daily dble top blog

 

Today it appears that price has bounced off the 20 period moving average. That (for today) means that option 1 is more likely.  But as we know things can change pretty quickly. I suspect we’ll get more pointers after the UK rate announcement this Thursday and NFP on Friday. So I will be keeping my powder dry and just watching the chart, sitting on my hands and waiting for the market to play its hand.

Lets wait and see what happens.

Trade well.

 

Paul

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About FXTraderPaul

A professional Trader and Coach, FXTraderPaul blogs about his adventures from the front-lines of FX Trading. A Trader and educator who can walk the walk as opposed to merely talk the talk!

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  1. 16th June: An interesting day for the UK | FXTraderPauls Trading Adventures - June 17, 2014

    […] recently posted about the FTSE and wondered about which way it would go from its present position.  Was it a continuation Triangle pattern looking explode higher? Or was it a Double Top reversal […]

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