Last year at the World Money Show London I listened to a professional hero Jim Rogers talk about his belief that not only will this be China’s century but that her growth will be peaceful and respectful of her neighbours. Whilst I agreed with him on the first part that this will be China’s century I disagree with him on the second. I wanted to question him about this however he ran out of time during his presentation.

I wanted to ask him how he thought all those countries; China, Russia, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Indonesia, Philippines etc would manage to negotiate a peaceful route to growth and prosperity when there was so much historical enmity between them?  Chinese, Russian and Japanese aircraft were already starting to brush against each other over disputed island territories.

When I see more articles and headlines like the ones below I start to get nervous that in fact we’re increasingly likely to see the opportunity for conflagration in the Far East – even if its unintentional. (Put lots of young testosterone fuelled youths in close proximity with guns and rockets and the likelihood of skirmishes increases greatly.) Not surprisingly that will have an impact on local (and global) markets. I’ve already experienced what its like to have positions move against you due to unexpected geo-political events which I wrote about here:  “I’m so ronery!  Kim Jong Il and the role of future predictions market”

I have no desire to be a doom-sayer but it does concern me that the next major conflict will be in the Far East and has the chance to be long-reaching in terms of drawing in Pacific Rim countries like the US & Aus.  Let’s hope I’m wrong!

China air zone ‘purely for defence’ says ambassador – BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25617860

(I’m no fan of the Daily Mail but Max Hastings generally has a well-considered view on these things. Even if he comes across as Pro-Army and Anti RAF at times!)

“Is World War Three about to start… by accident? Max Hastings asks whether rising tensions between China and Japan could boil over”

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2532932/Is-World-War-Three-start-accident-Max-Hastings-asks-rising-tensions-China-Japan-boil-over.html#ixzz2pcooVROV

“US has careful role to play as China flexes muscles” – Sydney Morning Herald

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/us-has-careful-role-to-play-as-china-flexes-muscles-20140116-30xo8.html#ixzz2qaRNB1a3