So it’s the final day of the month of April and I’m the first to admit that it’s been a challenging month. If you trade Sterling and trade breakouts then it’s fair to say that you’ll have found it taxing.
With the run-up to the general election next month it’s no surprise that Sterling has been as mad as a box of frogs at times. It would be fair to say that staying away from Sterling in its entirety this month may well have been a smart move, instead I decided to scale down my position size to the smallest possible and trade on. What with the euro debacle and it’s effect on indices and the dollar it’s fair to say it’s been a rummy old time.
However one mans threat is another mans opportunity and as always there have been some very sweet swing opportunities within these markets. I’m just focusing on early morning trades here and today was a pretty good reflection of the month as a whole. Using my relative strength filter meant that today we had sterling strength across the board and I had corresponding set-ups on GBPUSD, GBPCHF and GBPJPY
GBPUSD long triggered then dropped back and took me out by the skin of my teeth for -15 before powering on north as intended. This has been one of the main stories of my months breakout trading, getting the direction right….and still taking a loss! lol In trading if you’re too early, you’re dead. And if you’re late you’re dead! Had you reentered then you would have gained a scratch trade.
GBPCHF long triggered early….again another story I’ve experienced this month has been trades being triggered in and out early this month. On this occasion my long was triggered in 4 points before it should it have been, before falling back and taking me out for -15. This seems to be a peculiar point for long GBPCHF trades regardless of which broker I use. As part of my end of month review I will decide whether to drop GC longs in future or find a bettwr way/broker to help with my orders. Interestingly I was taken out of a trade earlier this week on a stop loss at a price nowhere near where price had traded. Part of the game, but I appreciate a frustrating part at that. (Would anyone care to hazard a guess about how much sympathy and support I got from my broker over this?)
So Sterling is strong across the board, is heading north nicely, I’ve so far taken 3 long positions and I’m already out of 2 for a total of -30! Story of the month eh? C’est la vie. I’ve just one position left in GBPJPY.
1. I’m sat grumbling at myself for missing a very beautiful ‘Fox in the Box’ set-up (which you can learn about here) but I have an order in for a long breakout which is triggered at 144.37. It heads north then falls back (where GU and GC are taken out) but on this occasion GBPJPY slips through.
2. Price heads north but then (along with other sterling crosses) forms a hi-test reversal bar. Having already been taken out on GU & GC the thought of taking another loser doesn’t exactly appeal to me but hey thems the rules. Eventually sterling continues north strongly and hits my break-even point.
3. The markets go a little mental here and all across the board we see large movements. I’m not shaken out, but my confidence is low that this trade will be profitable. On this I was wrong, gladly. As I’ve stated before I’d sooner be profitable than right and today that was proven the right way to be. Price inches north slowly but surely and finally hits my target at 144.82 for +45 points and a nice 3:1 return.
So 3 trades, all in the right direction, all on the strongest currency for this particular session, but only 1 profitable trade! It just goes to prove the adage about having a solid reward to risk ratio (R) for your trading strategies. Even with 2 losses and 1 winner I was able to come out with +15 profit overall from my early morning breakouts. Now if I’d just caught that Fox in the Box trade then I would sat here immensly smug! 😉
So that’s the end of the week and the month. It’s been an interesting one from the angle of position, swing and intra-day trades. We’ll see what May holds for us, I can’t wait and I’m looking forward to incorporating afew more ideas over the next couple of months!
Enjoy the long weekend and I’ll see you on the other side.